$BTC Personal View on Samsung's Earnings Realization Triggering Selloff in Memory Sector

Samsung's second-quarter profit surged 18 times, surpassing Nvidia's earnings, yet the earnings release triggered a collective plunge in global memory chips. The core reason is the classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact." In previous months, the market had fully priced in positives such as HBM shortages, sustained memory price increases, and AI computing power expansion. Stock prices had already discounted the boom dividends in advance, and the earnings release brought no new catalysts exceeding expectations, leading to concentrated profit-taking and a stampede.
Market deep concerns: the slope of price increases is peaking, DRAM gains are narrowing, downstream cloud vendors are under pressure, and capital expenditure expectations are loosening. Moreover, this round of profits heavily relies on high-end memory, while general-purpose memory demand remains weak. Funds worry that high profits are difficult to sustain long term.
In the short term, the sector enters a valuation digestion period. Previously overcrowded memory chip stocks face greater downward pressure, and volatility will significantly amplify. However, this does not mean the AI memory cycle is completely over. In the medium to long term, the gap in high-end HBM capacity still exists, and the manufacturers' logic of controlling production and maintaining prices remains unchanged. The market will shift from speculative overall price increases to differentiation.
In terms of operations, it is not advisable to rush to bottom-fish upstream wafers in the short term. In the medium to long term, one can focus on domestic substitution, HBM materials, and supporting packaging and testing targets. Going forward, key signals to track are spot memory price increases and cloud vendors' capital expenditures.