The BTC four-year cycle chart is trending again, with arrows all pointing to $150k. Don't get excited just yet.

I admit it has some truth: BTC does have a halving-driven four-year rhythm, and "long bull, short bear" is real.

But "1064 days up, 365 days down" repeating exactly? That's rearview mirror thinking—knowing the result first, then drawing the frame to fit. There have only been 3-4 cycles in history; n=3 proves no law, let alone supporting an extrapolation "accurate to $150k." Moreover, ETFs, institutions, and the Fed are rewriting the rules, and the cycle is decaying.

Cycles are a compass, not a GPS. They can tell you which season of the bull market you're in, but they can't give precise price points. The truly valuable use is the opposite: reduce when greedy, position when fearful.

Remember: the neater a chart looks, the more it makes you feel "this is inevitable"—the more dangerous it is. The market excels at breaking the cycle just when everyone believes in it.

‍#比特币 #四年周期 #Independent Thinking