Hold Interest Rates Steady: The Overwhelming Market Consensus


Probability of maintaining current interest rates unchanged is 82%, odds 1.22x. The blue curve has been at high levels for a long time; even if there is a short-term dip in the middle, it quickly recovers and repairs, making it the direction with the strongest capital consensus. Market participants judge that the Fed is likely to stay put in July, pausing both rate hikes and cuts.
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