Fed meeting minutes hit at 2 a.m.—after the whales accumulated and Strategy reduced its holdings, the market is waiting for a direction.

Ahead of this, whales accumulated 270,000 BTC over two weeks; afterward, Strategy cashed out 3,588 BTC—bulls and bears each doing their own thing. At 2:00 a.m. Thursday, the first set of Fed meeting minutes after Warsh took office was released, and the market held its breath.

What should you look for in these minutes?

Look at the wording describing risks of economic downside. Morgan Stanley noted that Warsh is becoming balanced in the “dual mandate,” no longer focusing solely on suppressing inflation. If the minutes see more committee members discussing that “employment risk is greater than inflation risk,” that’s a dovish signal.

What does it mean for BTC and ETH?

BTC is currently stuck in a choppy range of 61,000–64,000. Dovish minutes → the US dollar weakens, liquidity expectations improve → BTC has the momentum to test 64,000 and even 66,200; hawkish or neutral minutes → disappointment selling pours in → BTC pulls back to retest 61,000–62,000.

ETH moves with BTC, but with greater volatility. On dovish tailwinds, the upside is often larger than BTC’s; on hawkish cues, pullbacks are also sharper. Vitalik’s roadmap is a long-term narrative—tonight’s script is in the hands of macro factors.

A few immature thoughts:

Futures traders, don’t go too heavy tonight. The wording of the minutes is harder to predict than data, and the market is prone to sweeping both sides for liquidity. Waiting to act until 30 minutes after the release is more prudent than betting on direction ahead of time.

Spot traders, watch the 62,000–62,500 range. If BTC can’t hold after the minutes are released, the short-term structure weakens; if it holds, it remains a fairly dovish setup.

No matter which way it goes, keep your stops tight. Strategy is the map; discipline is the navigation. $BTC $ETH
#Strategy上周减持3588枚BTC #美国比特币ETF净流入4026枚BTC