July 8 BTC/ETH Morning Market Report: Geopolitical Tensions Rise, Fed Hawkish Expectations, Longs May Struggle to Hold!

Hello everyone, I haven't written a truly in-depth article in a while. Today, I will thoroughly analyze the current market situation using a combination of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomics, on-chain data, and technical indicators to reach a final conclusion! The article is a bit long, so please read patiently. Specific trading suggestions are given at the end! Those who like and comment will definitely get rich this year!

Let me first say a few words. Jiang Feng's recent articles clearly indicated shorting BTC at 63600, 64600, and 63900, and targets at 62700 have been gradually achieved. ETH shorted near 1830, 1820, 1805, and 1800 have basically reached the first target of 1750. Next, let's continue to analyze the specific subsequent market trends under the current economic situation!

I. Geopolitical Tensions Rise

The U.S. launched a new round of large-scale military strikes against multiple military targets in Iran, with the scale of operations expanding further compared to before. At the same time, it revoked some temporary sanctions exemptions for Iranian oil sales. Affected by this, international crude oil prices once rose over 5% during the session, which will further suppress Bitcoin's price!

II. Fed Hawkish Expectations

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the June FOMC meeting early on July 9. This deserves close attention as it may affect subsequent specific trends. At the June meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot showed that 9 of the 19 policymakers expected at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Walsh officially took charge of the Fed on July 7, and the market currently prices a 65% probability of a rate hike in September.

These meeting minutes will be the first important policy document since Walsh took office. If they release dovish signals, they may strengthen Bitcoin's recent rebound; if hawkish, they may accelerate capital outflows from risky assets. However, judging from Walsh's previous hawkish comments firmly anchoring the 2% target and not rushing to cut rates, the remarks around the 9th are likely to maintain a hawkish tone.

III. Spot ETF Inflows Send Positive Signals

Bitcoin spot ETFs have ended a previous 10-trading-day period of net outflows. On July 2, net inflows exceeded $222 million in a single day, and on July 6, net inflows were over $266 million. Yesterday, total net inflows into ETFs were about $21.5 million, of which BlackRock's IBIT saw net inflows of $54.8 million. However, these signals alone are still insufficient to determine a market reversal, and the sustainability of ETF inflows remains to be observed. Citigroup previously lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112k to $82k, citing persistent ETF outflows and a lack of progress in U.S. crypto legislation.

IV. Technical Analysis Shows Weakening Upside Momentum

Bitcoin's latest rebound peaked at 64690. After six consecutive bullish candles, it started to close bearish yesterday. Today, the price has pulled back. The daily chart has entered a short-term overbought zone. After continuous rises, profit-taking is increasing, further suppressing price extension upward. Currently, support lies near the EMA21 at 62700, with the middle Bollinger Band around 61900 as additional support. The RSI indicator has turned downward after being overbought, with KDJ forming a death cross and spreading downward after being overbought at highs. On the 4-hour level, the MACD red momentum bars are expanding below the zero line, and the fast and slow lines have formed a death cross extending downward. Therefore, there is no reason to go against the trend and go long!

In summary: My personal suggestion is to continue maintaining a short-on-rallies approach, with caution on long positions!

For specific entry points, refer to the resistance levels above and target the support levels below.

Bitcoin:

Resistance above near 63200～64000～64700, support below watch 62500～61800～61000～60500～58888～55000. Suggest reducing positions after reaching targets before further trading!

Ethereum:

Resistance above near 1770～1800～1855, support below watch 1740～1700～1670～1570～1500～1370. Suggest reducing positions after reaching targets before further trading.

Note: Enter with light positions at the above levels! Light positions! Light positions! Keep an eye on the Fed meeting minutes early on the 9th! Do not blindly use heavy positions! As long as we have capital, we still have opportunities. When it's time to bottom-fish, I hope everyone has sufficient ammunition!

Continuous updates are not easy. I hope to help everyone while also hoping for a like or an encouraging interaction. Your likes and comments are my greatest motivation for creating! #GUSD年化升至3.8% #美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌