Less than 20 days into the ceasefire, another change occurs: the US heavily bombs Iran and revokes oil waivers.

Author: Xiao Yanyan, Jinshi Data

The United States launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoked an exemption that allowed it to sell oil globally, further jeopardizing the peace agreement between the two sides after a series of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Central Command stated on platform X that this "powerful strike" was intended to "impose a heavy price on acts of aggression and harassment against commercial vessels carrying innocent civilians in international waters," and said Iran's aggressive behavior was "unjustified, dangerous," and "a clear violation of the ceasefire agreement."

According to a notice from the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on July 7 local time, the United States revoked a general license authorizing Iranian oil sales, with related wind-down transactions permitted until 12:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on July 17. An anonymous U.S. official said preliminary signs indicate "Iran recently fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz," calling this behavior "completely unacceptable" and warning of corresponding consequences.

According to a statement from the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued that day, transactions involving the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products previously banned under multiple U.S. executive orders and regulations had been exempted until August 21, 2026.

As a result, international oil prices rose overnight, with both WTI and Brent crude surging up to 5%. Meanwhile, concerns that rising energy prices could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates pushed spot gold below $4,100 per ounce.

Overall, the U.S. actions pose the most serious threat yet to the interim agreement signed by the two countries and could also derail negotiations aimed at reaching a permanent peace within 60 days after the agreement was signed.

According to Axios, a U.S. official said the strikes targeted Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missile facilities, anti-ship cruise missile positions, drone launch facilities, and port facilities. According to Iran's Mehr News Agency, local sources reported explosions near Iran's Qeshm Island and Sirik, as well as east and west of Bandar-e Hormoz.

According to Sky News, sources said U.S. military strikes are ongoing. According to Axios, a U.S. official said the U.S. strikes on Iran on Tuesday local time were four to five times larger in scale and intensity than the strikes ten days ago.

A U.S. official said the U.S. military strikes on targets inside Iran were "not a proportional response" but a reaction to Iran's recent attacks on cargo ships near the Strait of Hormuz. The official said: "This is punishment," and added, "It will not end soon."

Iran's Foreign Ministry issued a statement strongly condemning the U.S. Treasury Department's revocation of the measure suspending sanctions on Iranian oil sales, calling the action a "serious violation" of Article 10 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 18, and demanding that the U.S. bear responsibility for the consequences. Iran stated that less than 20 days after the memorandum was signed, the U.S. canceled the relevant license issued on June 21, further proving that the U.S. is "not acting in good faith, is unstable, and is untrustworthy."

Iran accused the U.S. of violating the memorandum multiple times over the past 20 days, either directly or through Israel's actions in Lebanon. Iran's Foreign Ministry said Iran has been fulfilling its commitments under the memorandum in good faith, and if the U.S. continues to breach it, Iran will take all measures it deems necessary to protect its national interests and security.

Before the U.S. launched the airstrikes, a U.S. official said Iran would only gain the benefits of the agreement with the U.S. if it demonstrated good behavior. However, the official added that negotiators are still making good-faith efforts to advance the final agreement, indicating the U.S. is not yet ready to completely abandon the peace process.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, said revoking the exemption "sends a signal to a complacent market that the ceasefire agreement may not be as solid and durable as people think. The market needs to reassess risks. "

The series of attacks reminds people that even with military forces protecting vessels that choose routes near the Omani coast, the risk of transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains persistent. U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Daryl Caudle said Iran is also trying to steer commercial vessels toward its coast, preventing them from using the Oman-side route.

In an interview with Bloomberg Weekend, he said Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz to guide vessels closer to the Iranian side. He said their goal is "to force shipping into the side of the Strait of Hormuz near Iran."

Claire McCleskey, co-founder of sanctions consulting firm Clarity Compliance Consulting and a former U.S. Treasury official, said: "The Iranians are determined to show they control the Strait of Hormuz, and the only safe passage is via the northern route."

The shift in the U.S. stance comes as oil shipments and production in the Persian Gulf begin to approach pre-war levels. The U.S. authorization for Iran to sell oil played a significant role in calming investors' concerns about supply shortages and helped curb oil prices. Now, renewed conflict and the renewed threat to energy transport through this critical strait could plunge global markets back into turmoil.

Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have been paused as Iran holds a funeral for its late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Qatar said the next round of talks will be arranged as soon as possible after the funeral. Khamenei will be buried on July 9 in his hometown of Mashhad.

The key question in the coming days is whether the U.S. will begin imposing new sanctions on Iran—a further violation of the interim agreement.

David Schenker, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former U.S. official for Middle East affairs during the Trump administration, said of the latest U.S. strikes: "This reflects the U.S. government's frustration. The expectation that Iran would comply with the agreement was overly optimistic. The war is dragging on."

Nate Swanson, former Iran director at the U.S. National Security Council and now teaching at the Atlantic Council, said the Treasury's action establishes a direct link between reopening the Strait of Hormuz and oil sanctions exemptions. He noted that to stabilize the interim agreement, Washington and Tehran must address unresolved issues in the agreement.

"Iran wants money, the U.S. wants free flow of energy. This memorandum of understanding is too fragile to sustain without a follow-up agreement, because both sides are not getting what they want under the current status quo," he said.

Michael Singh, who served as a Middle East director at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush, said Iran's military attacks in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that Tehran is trying to extract more early benefits from the interim agreement than Washington agreed to. The Treasury's move aims to counter that.

"So, the idea that we could offer a series of early concessions in exchange for Iran giving up control of the strait seems to have instead whetted Iran's appetite for more," Singh said.

He said all of this bodes poorly for the prospects of a final nuclear deal. "I think the chances of reaching such a deal are quite slim."