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Why does a nonfarm payrolls report make global markets collectively "nervous"?
Each month's nonfarm payrolls data is like a monthly test for global financial markets.
If the results are excellent, everyone starts discussing how long high interest rates can last; if the results are average, the market immediately speculates whether the Federal Reserve can adjust policy sooner. It can be said that a single jobs report affects the nerves of countless investors.
If this payrolls report underperforms expectations, the biggest change is not something sudden happening in the economy, but rather an adjustment in the market's expectations for future policy. The investment market often trades not on today, but on possible changes in the coming months.
Of course, we cannot ignore another issue: if a cooling labor market is accompanied by continued improvement in inflation, it is not necessarily bad for the market. Many investors hope to see a gradual economic slowdown, not a sudden hard brake.
Someone joked: "What the market fears most is not bad news, but not knowing whether the news is good or bad." This saying seems especially fitting when applied to macro data.
In the future, the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor employment, inflation, and consumer spending data. One nonfarm payrolls report is not enough to determine policy direction, but changes in data over several consecutive months are often more worthy of market attention. #美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免