Nonfarm "slowing down," market starts to recalculate the Fed's next move

As soon as the nonfarm data was released, the market instantly entered "calculator mode." Some were watching the employment numbers, some were watching the unemployment rate, and others were waiting for what the next sentence from Fed officials would be.

If nonfarm payroll growth is below market expectations, investors tend to believe the U.S. economy is gradually cooling, which means the pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates may ease somewhat. As a result, expectations for rate cuts heat up, and bond yields, the dollar, and the stock market all react quickly.

However, this does not mean that "weaker nonfarm data automatically means the Fed will cut rates." The Fed is more focused on the overall economic picture, including indicators such as inflation, wage growth, and consumer demand. Employment is just one important piece of the puzzle, not the entire answer.

Some investors joke: "Before, you looked at the weather to decide whether to bring an umbrella. Now, you look at the nonfarm data to decide whether to sleep." While it’s just a joke, it shows how important this data is for global markets.

For the stock market, if investors believe the economy is only moderately slowing rather than rapidly stalling, growth sectors and tech stocks are likely to attract more attention. If the market fears a clear economic downturn, risk appetite may also be affected.

The market is searching for new direction every day, and the nonfarm data simply provides a new reference point. What truly matters is not a single data point, but whether the economy continues to move in the same direction over the coming months.#美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免