Spain might actually be the real favorite, with possession football getting an upgraded version.

Many fans still see France as the top favorite, but if we carefully analyze the performances in the top eight, I actually think Spain has a better chance to go all the way.
The biggest change in this World Cup is that Spain has finally solved the past problem of "high possession, low efficiency." The team still maintains a high possession rate, but has clearly increased vertical progression and quick transitions, making their attack more layered.
After entering the knockout stage, Spain is not only able to control the pace of the game but also adjust their tactics according to different opponents, which makes them more mature. When facing high-pressure pressing, they can patiently circulate the ball; when facing a compact defense, they can also find opportunities through wide breakthroughs and set pieces.
Next, facing Belgium will be a highly tactical battle. Belgium has strong individual ability, while Spain has a more mature overall system. If Spain can control the midfield and limit Belgium's fast counterattacks, then their chances of advancing are very high.
World Cup champions often belong to the most stable system, not the team with the strongest individual ability. Spain's biggest advantage now is their extremely high overall coherence, with every player able to strictly execute tactical arrangements.
Of course, their biggest test may come in the semifinals or even the final. If they eventually face France, the two teams have completely different styles—one emphasizes overall control, the other emphasizes balance between attack and defense—that will be a true clash of titans.
Overall, I think Spain's current probability of winning the championship is already close to France's. If they can eliminate Belgium, they might even become the new biggest favorite.
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