How hard is it for Argentina to defend the title? The 'defending champion curse' is no joke.

Messi led Argentina to win the 2022 World Cup, and now they are aiming to defend the title. Historically, very few teams have achieved this — the last was Brazil in 1962. The 'defending champion curse' is real.

Data from Opta: Argentina's probability of winning is 10.05%, ranking fourth. Goldman Sachs gives 14%. Overall, Argentina's championship probability is basically between 10% and 15%, placing them in the top tier but not the biggest favorite.

Argentina's advantage is clear — Messi. At 39, Messi can still dominate the World Cup, scoring 6 goals in 3 group stage matches. With him on the field, Argentina has a backbone, someone who can solve problems in crucial moments. Moreover, the team has excellent chemistry, with most players being the same group that won in 2022, rich in big-game experience.

But there are many problems. First is physical fitness — given Messi's age, whether he can maintain high intensity for 90 minutes in the later knockout stages is uncertain. Second is defense — Argentina's backline is still a level below France and Spain. Third is the psychological pressure — as defending champions, every opponent will fight like crazy; everyone wants to defeat you.

Bookmakers' odds also tell the story: Argentina's title odds are 5.00, lagging behind France's 2.86. The market is not very confident about Argentina's defense of the title.

#世界杯冠军预测