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Must a low point occur 12 months after each Bitcoin cycle peak?
2013.11 → 2015.01
2017.12 → 2018.12
2021.11 → 2022.11
2025.10 → 2026.10 ??
The pattern is very consistent. The lows in 2015 and 2018 occurred against the backdrop of the end of the Fed's tightening cycle + liquidity contraction.
Today's macro environment (interest rate trends, US dollar index, correlation with US stocks) is no longer comparable;
This time, the low may be determined by whether US liquidity injection comes earlier or later, especially since November is Trump's midterm election!