#美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免 Starting from July 7, the U.S. terminates Iran oil export waiver

The U.S. Department of the Treasury officially announced on Tuesday that it would revoke the waiver licenses related to Iran oil export sanctions. The market immediately expressed strong concerns about the subsequent direction of U.S.-Iran talks, and international crude oil prices jumped sharply in response.
After the news broke, both WTI and Brent crude oil’s intraday gains exceeded 5%. In a document, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control clearly stated that the oil transaction waiver license issued on June 21, 2026 will officially expire as of July 7. This waiver was set up based on a memorandum of understanding previously reached between the U.S. and Iran. It was originally scheduled to be valid for two months, and there was still room to negotiate an extension.
The document further adds that the approved outstanding stock of transactions may only be carried out for closing work. The operational cutoff time is July 17, 2026. After July 7, all new transactions related to Iranian crude oil will no longer receive authorization from the U.S.

The core contradiction in this round of games centers on control over navigation management in the Strait of Hormuz. Last month, the U.S. and Iran reached related understandings: Iran pledged to ensure the safe passage of merchant ships through the strait, but insisted that all vessels must navigate through the northern channel near Iran’s coastline; meanwhile, the U.S. Navy opened a southern navigation route along the coast of Oman. Merchant ships that had been attacked recently largely chose this southern route. Locally on Tuesday, shipping incidents and insurance-related risks in the Strait of Hormuz flared up in a concentrated burst: a liquefied natural gas carrier, a very large crude oil tanker, and another ordinary merchant ship were attacked in succession. The U.S.-led Combined Maritime Operations Center, headquartered in Bahrain, directly raised the strait’s navigation risk level to the severe category. The abrupt shift in U.S. policy coincided with a critical juncture: before, crude oil production and export volumes in the Persian Gulf had been gradually recovering to pre-war levels, and international oil prices had also fallen back to the range from before the outbreak of conflict.
Once this round of revocation of the waiver causes the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran to become completely invalid, the global crude oil market may once again face severe turbulence.

Brett Erickson, Executive Partner of the risk advisory firm Obsidian Risk Advisors, commented that the U.S.’s decision lacks rationality. The oil waiver can only bring Iran limited economic benefits, but canceling the license is all too likely to directly destroy all agreements between the two sides. This move is not an effective means of exerting pressure and constitutes a serious strategic misstep$XBRUSD ‌