Morgan Stanley issues a clear signal: "Sell chips, buy cloud," "storage" is similar to "silver" peaking.

Golden Finance reports that on July 7, Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, sent a clear signal to clients in his latest weekly report: reduce holdings in semiconductors and shift to hyperscale cloud computing providers. This is not a bearish view on AI, but a rotation—there have been three similar adjustments within the AI investment cycle, and Wilson believes this is the fourth. After experiencing historic gains since the end of March, chip stocks have recently seen a notable cooling. A basket of high-beta momentum stocks (i.e., memory and chip stocks) recently recorded their biggest two-day drop since the COVID-19 pandemic. Wilson judges that this pullback "may have further room to run."

Wilson proposed a specific analogy in the report: semiconductor trends are highly similar to silver. There are two reasons: first, both have experienced parabolic price surges; second, both are highly correlated with the commodity market, where commodity prices have historically been volatile. He further pointed out that this adjustment will be led by the memory sub-sector—because memory is the "most commodity-like" category within the semiconductor complex, with high price elasticity and rapid reversals.