Galaxy Futures: In the long run, polysilicon prices may be strong.

In terms of demand, in July the module production schedule increased to around 40GW month-on-month, the wafer production schedule was reduced to 52.5GW month-on-month, and the translated polysilicon demand is about 100,000 tons. In terms of supply, in July, Dongfang Hope planned to suspend production, Hongyuan Green Energy planned to suspend production, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. ramped up capacity, resulting in monthly polysilicon output increasing to around 103,000 tons. In July, polysilicon inventories accumulated by about 0.3 million tons.

The current spot price for N-type dense feedstock is 32-33 yuan/kg, with futures trading at a premium to spot. Before the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, there is no buying/delivery pressure on the board, and futures may remain in a state of trading at a premium to spot. The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a consultation draft on implementing a price supervisor system; after implementation, it may to a certain extent suppress the low-price “involution” situation in the silicon material segment. Combined with the release of energy consumption quota standards, in the long run the polysilicon price may be relatively strong.

Currently, the basis costs of social non-standard inventory held by traders are generally below -5000. Around the 33,000 level on the board, social inventories can be cleared in batches, leaving limited room for further downside. The board repeatedly spiked up and then pulled back; the key reason is that some manufacturers have increased the scale of hedging. From an odds perspective, buying on dips and waiting for a catalyst may be the optimal choice. (Galaxy Futures)