Capital Futures: Downstream partial resumption of production, caustic soda futures prices stop falling and rebound.

Spot market, Shandong 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda weekly average 666 yuan/ton, up 2.1 percentage points month-on-month.
On the supply side, last week the average capacity utilization rate of domestic caustic soda sample enterprises with capacity of 100k tons and above was 79.2%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points month-on-month. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with capacity of 200k tons and above nationwide was 496.9k tons (wet basis), up 0.38% month-on-month and up 29.35% year-on-year. This week, the operating rate of sample chlor-alkali enterprises is expected to increase, and supply tends to increase. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda this week will increase to 81.2%, with a weekly output of 818k tons.
On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream alumina increased by 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, with some alumina units restarting production. Pay attention to changes in alumina plants' purchase volume and purchase prices. The capacity utilization rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.33 percentage points month-on-month, and non-aluminum new orders lack follow-up.
In summary, after the previous continuous decline, the caustic soda futures price has undergone a technical repair. However, supply-side pressure still exists, which may limit the rebound space of the futures price. Pay attention to the operating status of alumina units and downstream delivery volume. (Capital Futures)
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