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ShouChuang Futures: Crude oil stops falling, import recovery expectations are slow, ethylene glycol futures rebound from low levels.

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On the supply side, domestic MEG total operating rate increased by 1.68 percentage points week-on-week last week, while the coal-based operating rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points. East China MEG port inventory decreased by 60k tons week-on-week. Coal-based MEG plant operating rates are concentrated in July, and the total MEG operating rate is expected to decline further. Overseas, floating storage in the Gulf is mainly prioritized for supply to India and Southeast Asia, and the recovery of MEG imports in July-August is expected to be relatively slow. Domestic MEG is expected to continue destocking in July.
On the demand side, last week end-user new orders returned to a wait-and-see stance under a declining price environment, autumn/winter product stocking was postponed, and some weaving mills reduced operating rates again to control inventory. Last week, polyester operating rate increased slightly by 0.8 percentage points.
In conclusion, oil prices have stopped falling, and the pressure on the polyester industry chain has eased somewhat. The recovery of MEG imports in July-August may be slower than expected, and short-term MEG futures prices are expected to see a technical rebound. Attention should be paid to the strait passage situation and plant operating rate changes. (Capital Futures)
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