The lithium carbonate futures market saw a strong rebound yesterday, with the main contract continuing to strengthen in the afternoon and eventually closing up 8.36% at 163,360 yuan per ton. The core driving force behind this round of market movement lies in the unwinding of bearish factors following the release of supply-side news and the fundamental support from sustained increases in downstream production schedules. On the supply side, market expectations for the approaching restart window of the Jianxiawo lithium mine have continued to heat up. Given that the previous market had already fully priced in the bearish factors, the critical approval news helped repair pessimistic sentiment, leading to profit-taking by short sellers. Overall, the current supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate remains tight, with weekly inventories continuing to decline and downstream production schedules steadily increasing month over month. According to the latest production schedule data from Zeyan, July's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production is projected at 533k tons, up 7% month over month, while ternary material production is projected at 112k tons, up 0.4% month over month. It is expected that August's LFP cathode production will continue its month-over-month growth trend, driven primarily by the commissioning and ramp-up of new capacity. Looking ahead, short-term market divergence between bulls and bears is intensifying, and the market is expected to undergo wide-range adjustments. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the actual progress of major producers' production resumption, the pace of inventory destocking, and changes in the macroeconomic environment. Overall, supported by strong downstream production schedules during the off-season and expectations of destocking, lithium carbonate prices have some downside support, but the upside may be limited by expectations of supply increases. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate, but with significantly increased volatility. Investors are advised to hold positions cautiously. In the future, attention should focus on the pace of overseas mine shipments, the subsequent progress of the Jianxiawo mine's production resumption, and the sustainability of downstream demand growth. (Guotai Junan Futures)

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

Reward
like
Comment
Repost
Share

Comment

Add a comment

No comments

Trending Topics
View More
#
GUSDYieldRisesto3.8%
812.65K Popularity
#
USRevokesIranOilWaiver
1M Popularity
#
WorldCupChampionPrediction
68.78K Popularity
#
ANSEMHoldersSurpass122K
181.87K Popularity
#
SKHynixADROversubscribed
318.15K Popularity

Pinned

Sitemap

Guotai Junan Futures: Bearish factors have run their course after supply-side news has been implemented, and the fundamentals supported by ongoing upward demand-side production scheduling are driving the lithium carbonate market.

Trending Topics

GUSDYieldRisesto3.8%

USRevokesIranOilWaiver

WorldCupChampionPrediction

ANSEMHoldersSurpass122K

SKHynixADROversubscribed

Pinned