CITIC Futures: Awaiting inventory depletion, zinc prices fluctuate at high levels.

On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations show optimistic progress, and expectations of a Fed rate hike have declined, but the two sides have yet to reach a formal agreement, leaving macro expectations uncertain. On the supply side, zinc ore processing fees continue to decline, smelter margins are narrowing, limiting the recovery of zinc ingot output. At the same time, the export window for zinc ingot is close to opening, which may ease domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the off-season, with limited new orders from end users, resulting in generally average demand expectations. Overall, short-term zinc ingot supply pressure is easing, while consumption remains weak, zinc ingot inventories have not yet been drawn down, and zinc prices are fluctuating at high levels. Domestic zinc ingot supply increased month-on-month. Although downstream demand is entering the peak season, end-user demand is weak, presenting a pattern of weak supply and demand, with high social inventories. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory destocking. The US-Iran military conflict has disrupted the supply of zinc ingot and zinc concentrate, and rising energy prices have increased pressure on European zinc smelters. At the same time, the export window for Chinese zinc ingot is close to opening. However, before overseas smelters significantly increase production, LME zinc inventories are unlikely to accumulate continuously in the short term, and current processing fees at domestic zinc smelters are declining, which provides significant support for zinc prices. We believe zinc prices will fluctuate overall. (CITIC Futures)
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