The scene we least wanted to see has finally happened.

——The optimistic script has been brutally torn up.

- U.S. stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1%;

- Gold briefly broke below $4,100 during the session before barely closing at that level;

- Oil prices rose, with U.S. crude breaking above $70;

- The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.55%.

First, Tuesday wasn't simply "one day of decline"—several key price levels were triggered simultaneously: the $101 level for the U.S. dollar that analysts have been watching, $4,100 for gold, and $70 for U.S. crude oil.

Second, the magnitude of the U.S. stock decline doesn't match the current environment, so we need to watch for potential further downside risks. For example, the Nasdaq opened lower without any specific news at the time, and its decline again far outpaced the Dow. External shocks only pushed the door open; what really loosened it was that cracks had already appeared inside AI trading.

U.S. stocks are now under two layers of pressure:

The first layer is internal pressure: expectations for AI capital expenditure are cooling, and high-valuation growth stocks are retreating.

The second layer is external pressure: rising oil prices, rising yields, and a rebounding dollar.

Third, the direct cause of the market decline was—the U.S. has begun a series of strikes against Iran and revoked the waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil globally. This move sent oil prices soaring and gold plunging. Iran stated that the U.S. military action and revocation of the waiver violated the agreement reached between the two sides. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi vowed to respond with "decisive action."

The important thing is not "the U.S. hitting Iran again" per se, but that this event interrupted the optimistic script that the market had just formed.

Previously, the market was trading on: weak nonfarm payrolls, a falling dollar, lower probability of rate hikes, low oil prices, and gold and stocks recovering together.

Now it suddenly becomes: rising oil prices, a rebounding dollar, the 10-year Treasury yield surging to 4.55%, gold briefly breaking below $4,100, and the Nasdaq leading the decline.

The market is once again worried—will the energy shock push inflation higher again, preventing the Fed from easing? This is not about ordinary ups and downs; it's about "geopolitical risk re-entering inflation pricing."

The market will be defensive on Wednesday, and any rebound will be fragile. If Iran really takes "decisive action," such as attacking ships, ports, or energy facilities again, or threatening passage through the Strait of Hormuz, then oil prices will become the core variable for the entire market. At that point, the pressure on U.S. stocks will continue to increase, and the Nasdaq will remain the most vulnerable.