【US Economic Data】US adds 57k nonfarm jobs in June, below expectations｜US June unemployment rate falls to 4.2%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in June, nonfarm payrolls fell back to 57.000 jobs, below the expected 115.000. May’s figure was revised down from 172,000 to 129,000. The unemployment rate during the period fell from 4.3% to 4.2%.

For the week ending June 27, the number of initial unemployment claims (jobless claims) in the U.S. was 215,000, below the market’s expected 220,000. The prior value was revised from 215,000 to 216,000. For the week ending June 20, the number of continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. was 1.814 million, up by 2,000 from the previous week. The market had originally expected an increase of 1,000 to 1.813 million.

===The following are the July 1 data===

So-called “small nonfarm”: U.S. June ADP employment increased by 98,000, below the expected 118,000. The May figure remained at 122,000.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a human resources firm, data showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in June fell 53% month-over-month to 45,849, and fell 4% year-over-year.

===The following are the June 25 data===

In May, the U.S. PCE price index rose 4.1% year-over-year, matching market expectations, and reached the highest level since April 2023. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, with the prior value at 0.4%. Over the period, the core PCE price index rose 3.4% year-over-year, in line with expectations, and the prior value was 3.3%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.3%, also in line with expectations.

For the week ending June 20, the number of initial unemployment claims (jobless claims) in the U.S. was 215,000, below the market’s expected 225,000, and the prior value was revised from 226,000 to 227,000. For the week ending June 13, the number of continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. was 1.821 million, up by 21,000 from the previous week. The market had originally expected an increase of 5,000 to 1.805 million.

The second revision of U.S. Q1 GDP was revised upward from the earlier 1.6% to 2.1%.

===The following are the June 17 data===

In May, U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% month-over-month, exceeding the market expectation of 0.6% and April’s 0.4%. In April, business inventories rose 0.5% month-over-month, matching market expectations.

In May, U.S. pending home sales rose 3.8% month-over-month, far above the expected 0.9%, with the prior value at 0.3%.

===The following are the June 12 data===

The initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June was 48.9, higher than the expected 46, with the prior value at 44.8. The initial one-year inflation expectations were 4.6, below the expected 4.9, with the prior value at 4.8. The initial five-year inflation expectations were 3.4, below the expected 3.9, with the prior value also at 3.9.

===The following are the June 10 data===

U.S. May PPI rises 6.5% year-over-year above expectations; hits more than three-year high; core rises 4.9% below expectations

In May, the U.S. PPI rose 6.5% year-over-year, higher than the expected 6.4%. The prior value was revised from 6% to 5.7%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 1.1%, above the expected 0.7%, and the prior value was revised from 1.4% to 1.1%. For core PPI, the year-over-year increase was 4.9%, below the expected 5.4%, and the prior value was revised from 5.2% to 4.9%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, and the prior value was revised from 1% to 0.7%.

===The following are the June 10 data===

U.S. May CPI rises 4.2% year-over-year; sets a three-year high

U.S. inflation data generally met expectations across the board. In May, overall CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year, in line with expectations; the prior value was 3.8%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.5%, in line with expectations; the prior value was 0.6%. Core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, in line with expectations; the prior value was 2.8%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%; the prior value was 0.4%.

===The following are the June 5 data===

U.S. May nonfarm payrolls fall back to 172,000; beats expectations—May unemployment rate holds at 4.3%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in May, nonfarm payrolls fell back to 172,000, but were still above the expected 89,000. The April figure was significantly revised up from 115,000 to 179,000, while the March figure was revised up from 185,000 to 214,000. The unemployment rate during the period held at 4.3%.

===The following are the June 3 data===

U.S. May services PMI rebounds to 54.5; beats expectations—May ADP adds 122,000 jobs; above expectations

The U.S. ISM services index for May rose from 53.6 in April to 54.5, above the market’s expected 53.9. The services price index during the period rose from 70.7 to 71.3, slightly below the expected 72. The new orders index unexpectedly rose from 53.5 in April to 57.3 in May, while the market had originally expected it to fall to 55. The ISM employment index for May edged down from 48 in April to 47.9, missing the market’s expected 48.5.

So-called “small nonfarm”: U.S. May ADP employment increased by 122,000, slightly above the expected 118,000. The April figure was revised down from 109,000 to 105,000.

===The following are the May 28 data===

U.S. April PCE rises 0.4% month-over-month, below expectations—Q1 GDP revised down to 1.6%, misses expectations

In April, the U.S. PCE price index rose 3.8% year-over-year, in line with market expectations. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.4%, below the expected 0.5%, with the prior value at 0.7%. During the period, the core PCE price index rose 3.3% year-over-year, also in line with expectations; the prior value was 3.0%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%.

For the week ending May 23, the number of initial unemployment claims (jobless claims) in the U.S. was 215,000, higher than the market’s expected 211,000. The prior value was revised from 209,000 to 210,000. For the week ending May 16, the number of continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. was 1.786 million, up by 15,000 from the previous week. The market had originally expected an increase of 13,000 to 1.784 million.

In April, U.S. personal income was flat month-over-month, below the expected 0.4% and the prior value of 0.5%. During the period, personal spending rose 0.5% month-over-month, matching expectations, and the prior value was 1%.

The second revision of U.S. Q1 GDP for 2026 was revised down from the earlier 2% to 1.6%. By component, the growth of personal consumption expenditures was revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.4%, while gross private domestic investment (Gross private domestic investment) was revised down more sharply by 1.7 percentage points to 7%.

===The following are the May 24 data===

U.S. consumer confidence slips; price concerns intensify

U.S. consumer confidence fell slightly in May because the Iran war pushed up prices, leading to a decline in consumers’ views on the current state of the economy.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 0.7 points to 93.1, while the prior month’s data was revised upward. The median estimate by economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 92.

Indicators reflecting current conditions fell 3.2 points to a three-month low, while the expectation indicator for the next six months rose to 74.4 in May.

The report further shows that Americans’ anxiety about high cost of living is intensifying. Despite the overall labor market remaining stable and fewer signs of large-scale layoffs, the recent surge in fuel prices is weighing particularly on low-income households.

The report shows that two-thirds of consumers said they have cut spending due to rising prices. When asked about changes in spending habits, many respondents said they would buy fewer goods, postpone major purchases, and switch to cheaper alternatives.

Another consumer sentiment indicator released by the University of Michigan last week showed that U.S. consumer confidence fell to a record low in May, long-term inflation expectations deteriorated significantly, and views on personal financial conditions worsened. In a statement, Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said: “As the inflationary impacts from the war in the Middle East intensify, consumer confidence edged down in May.”

===The following are the May 22 data===

U.S. consumer confidence falls to historic low; Michigan consumer sentiment at only 44.8

According to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, due to the U.S.-Iran war and high oil prices exacerbating concerns about rising prices, consumer confidence in May fell to a record low.

The consumer sentiment index fell from the initial reading of 48.2 to 44.8, also far below 49.8 at the end of April.

Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement: “Because disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have continued to drive up gasoline prices, consumer confidence has now fallen for the third consecutive month. Currently, the sentiment index is slightly below the historic trough recorded in June 2022. Most importantly, consumers seem concerned that inflation will intensify and spread beyond fuel prices, and even in the long run.”

In fact, inflation expectations for the coming year rose from 4.7% last month to 4.8%, far above the 3.4% in February before the outbreak of the war. Long-term inflation expectations are also expected to rise to 3.9%, up from 3.5% in April.

===The following are the May 21 data===

U.S. May manufacturing PMI preliminary at 55.3, above expectations—Initial jobless claims fall to 209k

The U.S. S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI for May preliminary reading was 55.3, above the expected 53.8, with the prior value at 54.5. The services PMI preliminary reading was 50.9, below the expected 51.2, with the prior value at 51.

Separately, for the week ending May 16, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were 209,000, below the expected 210,000, and the prior value was revised from 211,000 to 212,000. For the week ending May 9, continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. were 1.782 million, broadly in line with the market expectation of 1.786 million. The prior value was revised from 1.782 million to 1.776 million.

===The following are the May 14, 2026 data===

For the week ending May 9, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. was 211,000, above the market’s expected 205,000. The prior value was revised from 200,000 to 199,000. For the week ending May 2, continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. were 1.782 million, up by 24,000 from the previous week. The market had originally expected an increase of 22,000 to 1.78 million.

Driven by factors such as rising oil prices, the U.S. export price index for April rose 3.3% month-over-month, far above the market expectation of 1.2%.

In April, U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, in line with market expectations.

===The following are the May 13, 2026 data===

With the Iran war continuing, pressure on U.S. factory prices has surged. In April, PPI rose sharply by 1.4% month-over-month, far above the expected 0.5%, pushing factory-gate inflation over the past year to 6%, a three-year high. Excluding energy and food, the month-over-month increase was 1%, above the expected 0.3%, bringing factory-gate inflation over the past year to 5.2%.

The report noted that in April, nearly 60% of the overall increase in final demand prices was attributable to higher services prices:

Final demand services: In April, the index rose 1.2%.

• Trade services: Two-thirds of the overall increase in services came from a jump in profit margins for final demand trade services of 2.7% (the trade index mainly measures changes in the profit margins charged by wholesalers and retailers). Among them, a 3.5% surge in wholesale profit margins for machinery and equipment was the core driver.

• Transportation and warehousing: Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services also rose significantly, up 5.0% month-over-month.

Final demand goods: After rising 1.9% in March, the index further climbed 2% in April.

• Energy goods: In the goods category, more than three-quarters of the increase came from a sharp 7.8% surge in final demand energy prices. Specifically, gasoline prices spiked 15.6% month-over-month, accounting for more than 40% of the increase in the goods category.

• Food and others: Final demand food prices edged up 0.2% (with egg prices plunging 49.7%); core goods prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.7%.

===The following are the May 12, 2026 data===

U.S. April CPI rises 3.8% year-over-year, above expectations—April core CPI increase rebounds to 2.8% above expectations

U.S. April inflation data broadly came in above expectations. The overall CPI year-over-year increase expanded to 3.8%, while the month-over-month rise slowed by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, up by 0.2 percentage points from March’s 2.6%, also higher than the expected 2.7%. The month-over-month rise also increased from March’s 0.2% to the latest 0.4%, above the expected 0.3%.

===The following are the May 8, 2026 data===

April unemployment rate: 4.3%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in April, nonfarm payrolls fell back to 115,000 jobs, down from the expected 65,000, but still remained above expectations. The unemployment rate during the period held at 4.3%.

===The following are the May 7, 2026 data===

U.S. initial unemployment claims rebound to 200k, below expectations—April layoffs rise 38% month-over-month to 83k

For the week ending May 2, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. was 200,000, below the market’s expected 205,000. The prior value was revised from 189,000 to 190,000. For the week ending April 25, continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. were 1.766 million, down by 10,000 from the previous week. The market had originally expected an increase of 24,000 to 1.8 million.

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in April this year rose 38% month-over-month to 83,000. On a year-over-year basis, it fell 20.7%.

The firm said that the technology industry was the hardest hit in April, with 33,000 layoffs, and government departments also cut 9,149 jobs.

===The following are the May 6, 2026 data===

U.S. April ADP employment rebounds to 109k, below expectations

So-called “small nonfarm”: U.S. April ADP employment increased by 109,000, slightly below the expected 120,000, while the March figure was revised down from 62,000 to 61,000.

===The following are the May 5, 2026 data===

U.S. April ISM services index falls to 53.6, below expectations—March JOLTS job openings fall to 686.6k, above expectations

In March, the U.S. trade deficit widened to 60.3 billion dollars, slightly below the market’s 61.0 billion dollars, with the prior value at 57.8 billion dollars.

In March, imports rose 2.3% month-over-month, below the expected 2.7% and the prior value of 4.4%. Exports during the period rose 2% month-over-month, above the market’s expected 1.9%, and the prior value was revised down to 4.1%.

U.S. April services PMI final reading was revised down from the preliminary 51.3 to 51.

In March, sales rose 7.4% month-over-month to 682,000 units, above the expected 652,000 units; in February, new home sales rose 8.9% month-over-month to 635,000 units, slightly below the market’s expected 636,000 units, and the prior value was revised down to 583,000 units.

The U.S. April ISM services index fell from 54 in March to 53.6, slightly below expectations of 53.7. During the period, services prices were kept at 70.7, below the market’s expected 73.5. The new orders index plunged from 60.6 in March to 53.5, far below the expected 57.3. The employment index rebounded to 48 but remained below the expected 48.3.

In March, U.S. JOLTS job openings fell from 6.922 million in February to 686.6 million, slightly above expectations of 685 million job openings.

===The following are the May 4, 2026 data===

U.S. March factory orders rise 1.5% month-over-month, above expectations

In March, U.S. factory orders rose 1.5% month-over-month, exceeding the market expectation of 0.5% and the prior value of 0.3%.

===The following are the May 1, 2026 data===

U.S. April ISM manufacturing index at 52.7, below expectations; price index hits over four-year high

U.S. April ISM manufacturing index was 52.7, below the expected 53.2, with the prior value at 52.7. Of these, the manufacturing prices paid index rose to 84.6, the highest since April 2022, also above the expected 80; the prior value was 78.3. The manufacturing employment index was 46.4, below the expected 48.8, with the prior value at 48.7. The manufacturing new orders index was 54.1, below the expected 54.5, with the prior value at 53.5.

Additionally, S&P Global’s final U.S. manufacturing PMI for April was 54.5, higher than the preliminary reading of 54.

===The following are the April 30, 2026 data===

Q1 GDP forecast grows 2%; supported by private investment and consumption—March PCE price index rises 3.5%—initial unemployment claims fall to 189k

The U.S. Q1 GDP forecast increased by 2%, below the expected 2.3%, with the prior value at 0.5%. Of this, personal consumption growth fell back from 1.9% to 1.6%, but still exceeded the expected 1.4%, contributing 1.08 percentage points to GDP. Private investment contributed 1.48 percentage points, government spending contributed 0.73 percentage points, while net exports offset 1.3 percentage points.

The U.S. March PCE price index rose 3.5% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, and rose 0.7% month-over-month, in line with expectations, with the prior value at 0.4%. During the period, the core PCE price index rose 3.2% year-over-year, also in line with expectations; the prior value was 3%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.3%, in line with expectations.

For the week ending April 25, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. was 189,000, below the market’s expected 212,000. The prior value was revised from 214,000 to 215,000. For the week ending April 18, continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. were 1.785 million, down by 23,000 from the previous week. The market had originally expected an increase of 10,000 to 1.815 million.

===The following are the April 29, 2026 data===

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that last Friday (the 24th), crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 6.233 million barrels. The market had originally expected an increase of 300,000 barrels. The prior value showed an increase of 1.925 million barrels.

U.S. March durable goods orders rose 0.8% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.5%.

U.S. March retail inventories rose 0.7% month-over-month, above the expected 0.1% and the prior value of 0.3%.

U.S. March housing starts reached 1.502 million units, above the expected 1.38 million units and February’s 1.356 million units.

===The following are the April 28, 2026 data===

In April, the U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board of Economic Advisers unexpectedly rose from 92.2 in March to the latest 92.8, while the market had originally expected it to fall to 89.

===The following are the April 23, 2026 data===

In April, the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI was 54, above the expected 52.5, with the previous reading at 52.3. The services PMI was 51.3, above the expected 50.6, with the previous reading at 49.8. The composite PMI was 52, above the expected 50.6, with the previous reading at 50.3.

Additionally, last week’s U.S. initial unemployment claims were 214,000, above the expected 210,000. The prior value was revised up from 207,000 to 208,000. For the week ended April 11, the number of continuing unemployment claims was 1.821 million, higher than the expected 1.816 million. The prior value was revised down from 1.818 million to 180.9 million.

===The following are the April 14, 2026 data===

U.S. March PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, below expectations—March core PPI rose 0.1%

The year-over-year increase in U.S. March PPI accelerated from February’s 3.4% to 4%, but remained below the expected 4.6%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.5%, also below the market expectation of 1.1%, with the prior value at 0.5%. March core PPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, the same as in February, but below the expected 4.1%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.1%, also below expectations of 0.4% and the prior value of 0.2%.

===The following are the April 10, 2026 data===

The U.S. released its first inflation data since the U.S.-Iran conflict. In March, the overall CPI rose from 2.4% in February to 3.3% year-over-year, slightly below market expectations. On a month-over-month basis, the rise increased by 0.6 percentage points to 0.9%, meeting expectations. Core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, also below market expectations of 2.7%; on a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.2%.

===The following are the April 9, 2026 data===

In February, the U.S. PCE price index rose 2.8% year-over-year, the same as in January, and in line with market expectations. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.4%, in line with expectations, with the prior value at 0.3%. During the period, the core PCE price index rose 3% year-over-year, also in line with expectations, with the prior value at 3.1%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.4%, meeting expectations.

In February, U.S. personal income fell 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected increase of 0.3%. During the period, personal spending rose 0.5% month-over-month, slightly below the expected 0.6%.

For the week ending April 4, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. was 219,000, higher than the market’s expected 210,000. The prior value was revised from 202,000 to 203,000. For the week ending March 28, continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. were 179.4 million, down by 42,000 from the previous week. The market had originally expected only a decrease of 3,000 to 182.9 million.

The second revision to U.S. fourth-quarter GDP for last year was 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, down again from the earlier first revision of 0.7%.

===The following are the April 8, 2026 data===

In February, the initial month-over-month drop in U.S. durable goods orders was 1.4%, below the expected decline of 1.2%, with the prior value at 0%.

===The following are the April 3, 2026 data===

U.S. March nonfarm adds 178,000 jobs; unemployment rate falls to 4.3%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in March, nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

Employment changes by industry:

• Healthcare: Added 76,000 jobs (partly because physicians returned to their jobs after a strike ended)

• Construction: Added 26,000 jobs

• Transportation and warehousing: Added 21,000 jobs (mainly from courier and messenger services)

• Social assistance industry: Added 14,000 jobs

Industries with employment declines:

• Federal government: Continued to contract, down by 18,000 people. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment has decreased by 355,000

• Financial activities: Down 15,000 jobs

Data revisions:

• January: Revised up from +126,000 to +160,000

• February: Revised down from -92,000 to -133,000

Report download

===The following are the April 1, 2026 data===

March ADP employment increases by 62,000 jobs; above expectations

So-called “small nonfarm”: U.S. March ADP employment increased by 62,000 jobs, above the expected 40,000. The February figure was revised from 63,000 to 66,000.

===The following are the March 31, 2026 data===

U.S. February JOLTS job openings fall to 6.882 million; miss expectations—March Conference Board consumer confidence rises to 91.8; above expectations

U.S. February JOLTS job openings fell from 7.24 million in January to 6.882 million, slightly below the market’s expected 6.89 million.

The U.S. MNI Chicago PMI for March fell from 57.7 in February to 52.8, far below the market’s expected 55. March Conference Board consumer confidence rose from 91 in February to the latest 91.8, far above the market’s expected 87.9.

In January, FHFA house price index rose 0.1% month-over-month, meeting expectations, with the prior value at 0.3%.

===The following are the March 19, 2026 data===

In February, U.S. PPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, above the expected 2.9%, and rose 0.7% month-over-month, also above the market expectation of 0.5%. In February, core PPI rose 3.9% year-over-year, above the expected 3.7%, and rose 0.5% month-over-month, also higher than the expected 0.3%.

===The following are the March 13, 2026 data===

The U.S. released its revised GDP estimate for last year’s fourth quarter at 0.7%, below the forecast 1.4%. The October government shutdown was the main factor dragging down GDP growth.

In January, the U.S. PCE price index’s year-over-year growth rate fell slightly from 2.9% in December last year to 2.8%, below the market’s expected 2.9%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.3%, meeting expectations. During the period, the core PCE price index rose from 3% in December last year to 3.1% year-over-year, in line with market expectations. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.4%, also meeting expectations.

In January, U.S. personal income rose 0.4% month-over-month, below the expected 0.5%. During the period, personal spending rose 0.4% month-over-month, slightly above the expected 0.3%.

In March, the initial market sentiment reading from the University of Michigan was 55.5, above the expected 55, with the prior value at 56.6. The initial one-year inflation expectations were 3.6%, above both the expected figure and the prior value of 3.4%.

===The following are the March 12, 2026 data===

For the week ending March 7, the number of initial unemployment claims (jobless claims) in the U.S. was 213,000, below the market’s expected 215,000. The prior value was revised from 213,000 to 214,000. For the week ending February 28, continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. were 185 million, down by 21,000 from the previous week, matching market expectations.

In January, U.S. new home starts rose 7.2% month-over-month to 1.487 million units, above the market’s expected 1.34 million units. During the period, building permits fell from 1.455 million units in December last year to 1.376 million, below the expected 1.42 million.

===The following are the March 11, 2026 data===

U.S. February inflation data were entirely in line with expectations. The overall CPI year-over-year growth rate was maintained at 2.4%. The month-over-month increase rose by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3%. Core CPI year-over-year was maintained at 2.5%, but the month-over-month increase fell by 0.1 percentage point to 0.2%.

===The following are the March 6, 2026 data===

U.S. February nonfarm payrolls plunge by 92,000, far worse than expected; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

In February, U.S. nonfarm employment decreased by 92,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 55,000. January was revised down from 130,000 to 126,000. The unemployment rate in February was 4.4%, higher than the expected and January’s 4.3%. In addition, total nonfarm employment in December last year and January was revised down by 69,000.

U.S. employment report download

===The following are the March 5, 2026 data===

U.S. companies cut 48,000 jobs in February, down 55% month-over-month—Last week’s initial unemployment claims held at 21.3萬 below expectations

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that in February this year, layoffs announced by U.S. employers fell 55% month-over-month to 48,307, and also declined 72% year-over-year.

Andy Challenger, the firm’s Chief Revenue Officer, said that the decline in layoffs in February alleviated the elevated layoff plans seen at the start of the year. As the U.S. gets drawn into the Iran war, more layoff plans may emerge toward the end of the first quarter, because companies will tighten their belts amid uncertainty and rising costs.

The technology sector had the highest number of layoffs, at 11,000. In addition, the education sector also laid off 5,417 people in February.

Separately, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. last week was maintained at 213,000, below the expected 215,000; the number of continuing unemployment claims was 1.868 million, higher than the expected 1.845 million and the prior value of 182.2 million.

===The following are the March 4, 2026 data===

The U.S. released the so-called “small nonfarm” February ADP data. During the period, employment increased by 63,000 jobs, above the expected 50,000, while the January figure was revised down from 22,000 to 11,000.

===The following are the February 25, 2026 data===

There are signs that U.S. inflation expectations are heating up. The latest January PPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, above the expected 2.6%, and rose 0.5% month-over-month, also above the market expectation of 0.3%. During the period, core PPI rose 3.6% year-over-year, higher than 3.3% in December last year and the expected 3%.

===The following are the February 24, 2026 data===

U.S. December FHFA house price index rises 0.1% month-over-month, below expectations

In December, the FHFA house price index rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%. The prior value was revised from 0.6% to 0.7%. In addition, in December, the S&P/CS20-city seasonally adjusted home price index rose 1.38% year-over-year, roughly in line with market expectations. The prior value was revised from 1.39% to 1.42%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.47%, above the expected 0.3%, with the prior value revised from 0.47% to 0.53%.

===The following are the February 20, 2026 data===

U.S. Q4 GDP forecast only rises 1.4%—PCE price index rises 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations

The Fed’s inflation gauge, the December PCE price index, was higher than market expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month, above the expected 0.3%, and rose 2.9% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.8%. During the period, the core PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month, also above the expected 0.3%, and rose 3% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.9%.

The U.S. Q4 GDP forecast for last year was 1.4%, below the market’s expected 2.8%. Q4 GDP growth was mainly driven by increases in consumer spending and investment, but these increases were offset by decreases in government spending and exports.

===The following are the February 19, 2026 data===

U.S. initial unemployment claims fall to 206k, below expectations—December trade deficit expands to 703 billion dollars; full year is one of the largest deficits since 1960

For the week ending February 14, initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were 206,000, below the market’s expected 225,000. The prior value was revised from 227,000 to 229,000. For the week ending February 7, continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. were 1.869 million, up 17,000 from the previous week. The market expectation was 1.86 million.

Separately, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that in December, the goods and services trade deficit widened to 703 billion dollars, from the previous month. The full-year trade deficit totaled 901.5 billion dollars, still one of the largest deficits since records began in 1960. The U.S. trade deficit in 2024 was 903.5 billion dollars.

===The following are the February 13, 2026 data===

U.S. January CPI rises 2.4% year-over-year, below expectations

The U.S. reported that January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below market expectations of 2.5%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.2%, also below the market expectation of 0.3%. During the period, core CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year, in line with expectations, and rose 0.3% month-over-month, also meeting market expectations.

===The following are the February 11, 2026 data===

In the U.S., the unemployment rate in January fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3%, below the expected 4.4%. During the period, nonfarm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, above the expected 65,000. The prior value was revised up to 48,000.

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Worth noting is that the private sector added as many as 172,000 jobs, but because the government sector cut 42,000 jobs, the net increase was only 130,000.

At the beginning of the second Trump term, the U.S. rolled out a large-scale civil servant departure program. The aim was to allow employees who did not want to continue working under the Trump administration, or were unwilling to accept “return to office” requirements, or feared being forced to be laid off in the future, to leave in a more moderate manner. Over this 6-to-8-month period, they would still receive salary and benefits. The relevant list officially left the federal payroll in January.

===The following are the February 7, 2026 data===

U.S. December import price index rises 0.1% month-over-month, in line with expectations—December export price index rises 0.3% month-over-month, above expectations

ADP reported that for the week ending January 24, businesses added 6,500 jobs. The U.S. December import price index rose 0.1% month-over-month, in line with expectations; meanwhile, the export price index rose 0.3% month-over-month, above the expected 0.1%.

In November, U.S. business inventories rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% and the prior value of 0.2%.

===The following are the February 6, 2026 data===

February University of Michigan market sentiment preliminary reading rises to 57.3, above expectations; one-year inflation expectations fall to 3.5%, a 13-month low

The University of Michigan market sentiment preliminary reading for February was 57.3, a six-month high, above the expected 55, with the prior figure at 56.4. The one-year inflation expectations preliminary reading was 3.5%, below the expected and the prior figure of 4%, and hit a new 13-month low. The five-year inflation expectations preliminary reading was 3.4%, slightly above the expected and previous figure of 3.3%.

===The following are the February 5, 2026 data===

U.S. firms lay off 108,000 people in January, up sharply more than 200% month-over-month—Last week’s initial unemployment claims rise to 231k, above expectations

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that layoffs announced by U.S. employers in January this year surged more than 200% month-over-month to 108,000. On a year-over-year basis, it also increased by nearly 1.2 times. The initial unemployment claims last week were also far higher than market expectations.

The firm said that the number of layoffs in January was the highest for the same period since 2009. Andy Challenger, the firm’s Chief Revenue Officer, said that the first quarter usually sees large numbers of layoffs, but the unusually high number in January indicates that related plans had already been set as early as late 2025, reflecting employers’ pessimistic outlook for 2026.

The transportation and logistics sector had the highest number of layoffs, at 31,000, mainly due to UPS (US: UPS) and Amazon (US: AMZN) ending their partnership and announcing 30,000 layoffs as a result. In addition, the technology sector also laid off more than 22,000 people in January, most of which came from Amazon. Amazon had previously announced it would cut 16,000 jobs to restructure its management hierarchy.

Separately, last week’s initial unemployment claims in the U.S. rose from 209,000 to 231,000, above the expected 212,000. Continuing unemployment claims were 1.844 million, below the expected 1.85 million and the prior value of 182.7 million.

===The following are the February 4, 2026 data===

December ADP adds 22,000, below expectations; U.S. mortgage applications fall 8.9% last week

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.24% to 6.21%. Mortgage applications fell 8.9% over the past week.

The U.S. released the December ADP data, known as “small nonfarm.” During the period, employment increased by 22,000 jobs, below the expected 45,000 jobs.

===The following are the January 31, 2026 data===

January S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI final reading rises to 52.4

The January S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI final reading was 52.4, higher than the preliminary reading of 51.9. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index for January was 52.6, above the expected 48.5, with the prior value at 47.9. Among them, the sales price index was 59, new orders rose sharply to 57.1 from a revised 47.4, and employment was 48.1—each higher than the figures for December last year.

===The following are the January 30, 2026 data===

U.S. December PPI rises 0.5% month-over-month, above expectations—December core PPI rises 0.7%

U.S. December PPI rose 0.5% month-over-month, above the expected 0.2%. Core PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month, also above the expected 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, December PPI rose 3%, above the expected 2.8%, and core PPI rose 3.3%, above the expected 2.9%.

===The following are the January 29, 2026 data===

U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 209k, below expectations—U.S. November factory orders rise 2.7% month-over-month, beats expectations

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week fell from 210,000 to 209,000, below the expected 205,000. Continuing jobless claims were 1.827 million, below the expected 1.855 million and the prior value of 1.865 million.

In November, the U.S. trade deficit widened from October’s 29.2 billion dollars to 56.8 billion dollars, far above the expected 44.5 billion dollars. In November, U.S. exports fell 3.6% month-over-month, a larger decline than the expected 1.7%, and the prior value was revised up to an increase of 3%.

In November, U.S. imports rose 5% month-over-month, far above the expected 2.3%. In November, U.S. factory orders rose 2.7% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 1.6%; October was a decline of 1.3%.

===The following are the January 27, 2026 data===

U.S. consumer confidence at over 11-year low

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for January fell sharply to 84.5 from 94.2, below the expected 91, reaching an over 11-year low.

The FHFA house price index for November rose 0.6%, above the expected 0.3%, with the prior figure at 0.4%.

The S&P CS 20-city index rose 1.39% year-over-year, above the expected 1.2%, with the prior figure at 1.32%.

===The following are the January 23, 2026 data===

U.S. January S&P manufacturing PMI rebounds to 51.9—January University of Michigan consumer confidence revised up to 56.4; one-year inflation forecast revised down to 4%

The U.S. S&P manufacturing PMI for January was 51.9, slightly below the market expectation of 52, but higher than December’s 51.8. During the period, the services PMI was maintained at 52.5, also below the expected 52.9.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January final reading was revised up to 56.4 from the initial reading of 54. The one-year inflation forecast final reading was revised down to 4% from the initial 4.2%.

===The following are the January 22, 2026 data===

PCE inflation fully met expectations; only 0.2% month-over-month; Q3 GDP revised up to 4.4%—last week’s initial unemployment claims rise slightly to 200k

In November, the PCE price index in the Fed’s inflation gauge fully met expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year; the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year.

The U.S. third-quarter GDP was revised up to 4.4% from 4.3% previously.

Last week’s first-time unemployment claims edged up from 199,000 from the previous week to 200,000, slightly below the market’s expectation of 210,000. For continuing claims, the number fell to 1.849 million from 1.895 million expected.

===The following are the January 20, 2026 data===

ADP: U.S. adds 8,000 jobs per week

ADP reported that for the four weeks ending December 27, businesses added an average of 8,000 jobs per week.

===The following are the January 15, 2026 data===

U.S. last week initial jobless claims fall to 198k

U.S. initial jobless claims last week fell from 207,000 to 198,000, below the expected 215,000. Continuing jobless claims were 1.884 million, below the expected 1.899 million and the prior value of 1.903 million.

The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index for January rebounded from -3.7 in December to 7.7, above the market expectation of 1.

===The following are the January 14, 2026 data===

The U.S. reported that November PPI rose 3% year-over-year, above the market expectation of 2.7%, and rose 0.2% month-over-month, meeting expectations. During the period, core CPI rose 3.5% year-over-year, also above the expected 2.9%. On a month-over-month basis, it was unchanged, but below the expected 0.2%.

In November, U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, above the expected 0.5%.

===The following are the January 13, 2026 data===

U.S. December core CPI rises 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations

The U.S. reported that December CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, and rose 0.3% month-over-month, also meeting expectations. During the period, core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, below the expected 2.7%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%.

===The following are the January 9, 2026 data===

U.S. December unemployment rate falls from 4.6% to 4.4%

The U.S. December unemployment rate fell from 4.6% in October to 4.4%, below the expected 4.5%. During the period, nonfarm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, below the expected 70,000. The prior figure was revised down to 56,000.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January rebounded from 52.9 in December to 54, above the market’s expected 53.5.

===The following are the January 8, 2026 data===

U.S. last week initial unemployment claims rise to 208k

U.S. initial unemployment claims last week rose from 200,000 to 208,000, below the expected 212,000. Continuing unemployment claims were 1.914 million, higher than the expected 1.90 million and the prior value of 185.8 million.

In October, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply to 29.4 billion dollars, below the market’s expectation of 58.7 billion dollars. The prior value was 48.1 billion dollars.

Data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that in December, the number of layoffs announced by U.S. employers fell 50% month-over-month to 35,000, and was down 8% year-over-year.

The firm said that total layoffs for the full year 2025 totaled 1.78 million, up 58% year-over-year, the highest since 2020. However, the firm’s Chief Revenue Officer Andy Challenger said that the number of layoff plans announced in December was the lowest of the year. Although December is typically a slow season, considering the increase in hiring plans, it is a positive sign after a wave of layoffs.

Layoffs in the government sector were the highest across industries, at 308,000, a seven-fold increase year-over-year, mainly concentrated in the federal government. But the layoff wave was concentrated in the first quarter of the year; over the nine months from Q2 to Q4, government layoffs were less than 29,000.

Among private firms, the technology sector had the highest number of layoffs last year at 154,000, up 15% year-over-year. The firm said that over-hiring over the past decade, combined with other factors, and the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) transformation far exceeding that of other industries, led to a wave of job losses in the sector.

===The following are the January 7, 2026 data===

The U.S. released the ADP data for December, known as “small nonfarm.” During the period, employment increased by 41,000 jobs, below the expected 50,000 jobs. The November data was revised from a decrease of 32,000 to a decrease of 29,000.

===The following are the January 5, 2026 data===

U.S. December ISM manufacturing index disappoints

In December, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index was 47.9, below the expected 48.4, with the prior value at 48.2. Among them, the new orders index was 47.7, the employment index was 44.9, and the prices index was 58.5.