Revocation of permits + firing at Hormuz, oil prices jumped in response, putting a gun on the negotiating table – this script is all too familiar.

The U.S. Treasury Department's OFAC revoked the General License allowing Iranian oil sales, with wind-down transactions to be completed before midnight on July 17, causing international oil prices to rise. An anonymous U.S. official stated that signs of Iran firing on three merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are unacceptable and will carry consequences; the U.S. side continues to say that negotiations are moving forward with a final agreement. Previously, within the framework of negotiations, a 60-day General License allowed for the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil, with a term extending to August 21, 2026.