#世界杯冠军预测 As of July 2026, based on models from major institutions and AI predictions, the France national team is currently the most favored World Cup champion candidate, with Spain and Argentina right behind. Latest championship probability rankings (updated by Opta after the first round)

1. France: 15.87% (overtook Spain to move into first place after beating Senegal 3-1 in the group stage)
2. Spain: 12.85%
3. Argentina: 12.23%
4. England: 10.32%
5. Portugal: 7.84% Note: Goldman Sachs’ pre-tournament simulation produced predictions of “Spain 26%, France 19%, Argentina 14%,” while some domestic large AI models and the University of Liverpool’s supercomputer unanimously ranked Spain as the top favorite.
Analysis of Core Contenders
France (biggest favorite): With unparalleled squad depth worldwide (total squad value of approximately €1.47 billion), its forward line features top attackers such as Mbappé; with the expansion to 48 teams leading to more knockout-stage matches, its extremely high tolerance for injuries is its biggest advantage.
Spain (traditional powerhouse): Its average age is only 24.5, the “golden generation of the 2000s” (Yamal, Pedri, etc.) paired with a mature possession-and-control system, and it also has adaptability to high-altitude venues in North America.
Argentina (defending champion): Retains the core framework of the previous championship team, with extremely strong team cohesion, but faces physical endurance tests due to players’ relatively advanced ages and the “defending champion curse” (no team has won consecutive titles since 1962).