Oil price trend | Trump administration lowers Brent oil price forecast for this year and next year

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lowering its expected Brent crude oil prices for this year and next by $13 and $14 per barrel, respectively, while raising its forecast for U.S. oil production this year.

The EIA expects Brent to average $82 per barrel in 2026, down from a prior expectation of $95; and $65 per barrel in 2027, down from a prior expectation of $79. The EIA expects the New York crude oil average price to be $76.26 per barrel in 2026, previously forecast at $88.32; and $60.76 per barrel in 2027, previously forecast at $74.39.

The EIA also expects U.S. oil production in 2026 to be 13.8 million barrels per day, previously estimated at 13.7 million barrels per day; and expects production in 2027 to average 14.0 million barrels per day, previously estimated at 14.2 million barrels per day. It expects global crude oil production in 2026 to average 101.9 million barrels per day, previously forecast at 99.0 million barrels per day; and expects global daily production in 2027 to be 109.8 million barrels per day, previously forecast at 109.3 million barrels per day.

The EIA estimates that global crude oil demand in 2026 will average 102.8 million barrels per day, previously forecast at 102.9 million barrels per day; and expects daily demand in 2027 to be 104.8 million barrels per day, previously forecast at 105.3 million barrels per day. It expects U.S. crude oil demand to average 20.7 million barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from its previous forecast; and expects daily U.S. demand in 2027 to be 20.8 million barrels, previously forecast at 20.7 million barrels per day.