Spain — The Ultimate Return of Tiki-Taka?

If France is the "strongest individual," then Spain is the "strongest system."

Before this World Cup kicked off, Goldman Sachs used Monte Carlo simulations and the Elo rating system to run 50k simulations, and Spain topped the list with a 26% probability of winning. Goldman Sachs' model is built on data from nearly 20k international A-level matches since 1978, not just pulled out of thin air. The OPTA supercomputer also ran 10k simulations before the tournament, placing Spain first with a 16.1% probability.

What makes Spain strong? Tiki-taka. These young players have taken possession football to the extreme — not the hypnotic sideways passing, but an aggressive, forward-penetrating style. With midfield core Pedri and Gavi, La Masia-trained technical players, plus versatile defensive midfielder Rodri, Spain's midfield control is arguably the strongest of all teams in this World Cup.

Another statistic worth noting: Spain has won both the UEFA Nations League and the UEFA European Championship in the past two years. This is no accident; it's the track record a mature championship team should have. Moreover, after the baptism of major tournaments in these two years, Spain's young players have a completely different mentality.

Of course, Spain also has weaknesses. The forward line lacks a true elite finisher. While Morata is decent, he still falls short compared to the likes of Mbappé and Haaland. If they face a team that parks the bus, whether Spain can break down the opponent's goal is a question mark.

But regardless, Spain's tiki-taka system is one of the most stable paths to the championship in this World Cup.

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