MVRV Ratio & MVRV Z-Score

• MVRV 1.209 and Z-Score 0.36 are very healthy levels in this cycle.
• History shows that Z-Score below 1 often appears in good accumulation zones or cycle bottoms. The current level indicates the market is no longer overvalued, and euphoria has been largely flushed out after the previous rally.
• This is an area where long-term holders typically accumulate more rather than panic sell.
Realized Price (~52,900 – 55,000 USD)
• The current price is only ~21% higher than the average cost basis of the entire network.
• Compared to previous cycle tops (usually MVRV 3–5+), the current premium is still quite modest → little overhead supply from deeply underwater holders.
• This reduces the risk of a sharp sell-off if prices correct further.
ETF Flow
• Recently there was a strong outflow week (~$527 million), but on 07/06 it recorded +$265.7 million inflow.
• Institutional capital flows are still in a stabilization phase after a long outflow streak. There is no sign yet of a strong return like in early 2025, but the selling pressure from ETFs is no longer present.
Exchange Flow & Whale Behavior
• Exchange Netflow has not increased significantly recently (even slightly negative in some timeframes) → no sign of large holders dumping coins onto exchanges en masse.
• Whale supply has softened a bit, while smaller addresses are increasing. This suggests there is no strong accumulation from whales at the current price level, but also no major selling pressure.
SOPR
• Currently oscillating near the 1.0 – 1.05 range.
• This means most coins being spent are near break-even or at a slight profit. There is no capitulation (SOPR < 0.95 sustained) nor strong profit-taking (SOPR > 1.2–1.3).
• The market is in an emotional equilibrium — neither extreme fear nor greed.