Galaxy Securities: The strong consensus on the AI industry trend will shift from thematic speculation to performance verification.

Galaxy Securities’ July market outlook states that with the Fed’s “strategic ambiguity” debut by Walsh taking effect, and the market gradually digesting expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will resume passage after the US-Iran agreement, geopolitical disruptions to the market have been downgraded from shock-driven effects to trend-tracking effects. Meanwhile, the macro uncertainty that previously weighed on the market is declining.

Entering July, as uncertainty falls, capital begins to reassess. The market’s strong consensus on AI industry trends will mainly focus on earnings pre-announcements, and the market will shift from thematic speculation to performance validation. At the same time, as the Central Political Bureau meeting approaches (typically held in late July), market attention to policy direction setting increases. On the one hand, the market may see volatile consolidation while waiting for the verification of interim report performance. High-dividend assets are expected to make a phased return, and within the technology sector, a process of filtering out the false to retain the true will take place. On the other hand, the “six networks,” at the intersection of new infrastructure and traditional infrastructure, are expected to serve as a bridge to carry expectations for both “AI industry trends” and “stable growth.”