Goldman Sachs: AI job doom exaggerated! 15 million people will be replaced in the next ten years, but these "two major industries" will face severe labor shortages.

Will AI take away everyone's jobs? Top Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs gave a negative answer. According to the latest Goldman Sachs report disclosed today (7th) by well-known financial commentator Walter Bloomberg, the fear of an 'employment apocalypse' brought by AI has been greatly exaggerated. Although about 15 million jobs in the U.S. will be replaced over the next decade, and high-paid knowledge white-collar workers will be the first to bear the brunt, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that this will be a 'gradual transformation' that takes several years, and ultimately productivity dividends and the birth of new industries will overcome the short-term pain of unemployment. (Previous summary: Is the cost of the AI gamble too heavy? Microsoft reportedly cuts 5,500 jobs for the third time in a year, with Xbox becoming a hard-hit area) (Background supplement: Is the tech industry no longer blaming AI? Robinhood lays off 10%, internal letter reveals new excuse for layoffs in Silicon Valley)

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• 15 million people will be replaced in the next decade, white-collar workers bear the brunt
• AI labor market transformation: affected areas vs. benefiting areas
• The biggest risk lies in 'adoption speed': gradual or drastic?

Since the explosion of generative AI, the fear of 'robots stealing jobs' has always hung over the global labor market. However, from the macro perspective of Wall Street investment banks, this technological revolution brings not destruction, but transformation.

On July 7, 2026, well-known financial news account Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) shared on the X platform the latest in-depth report from Goldman Sachs on the 'impact of AI on the job market'. Goldman Sachs stated clearly in the report that the market's fear of an 'employment apocalypse (Job Apocalypse)' caused by AI has been greatly exaggerated.

15 million people will be replaced in the next decade, white-collar workers bear the brunt

Despite Goldman Sachs's optimistic outlook on the long-term economy, the scale of this labor reshaping is still huge. The report estimates that AI has the potential to automate about 25% of working hours in the U.S. Within the next decade, approximately 15 million workers (about 9% of the total workforce) in the U.S. are expected to have their jobs completely replaced by AI.

Unlike the past industrial revolution that impacted blue-collar workers, the epicenter of this AI revolution is concentrated in 'knowledge-based industries.' Goldman Sachs named white-collar jobs including finance, law, corporate consulting, customer service, software development, and graphic design as facing the most severe impact. Young people and junior knowledge workers will face the greatest employment pressure in the early stages of the transformation.

AI labor market transformation: affected areas vs. benefiting areas

However, the disappearance of old jobs is often accompanied by the birth of new opportunities. Goldman Sachs outlined a blueprint for the redistribution of industry labor in the AI era:

| Sector Division | | --- | | Main Covered Areas and Job Positions | | Goldman Sachs Macro Forecast and Interpretation | | --- | --- | --- | | Hardest-Hit Areas (Knowledge and Creativity) | | Financial analysis, legal review, software coding, graphic design, and entry-level customer service. | | Job losses have already appeared in tech and creative industries, but the overall U.S. unemployment rate has not yet seen a significant surge. | | Demand Explosion Areas (Physical Infrastructure) | | Construction, electrical infrastructure, AI data center construction and maintenance. | | As tech giants invest trillions in capital expenditures for AI computing power, the 'physical industry and infrastructure' supporting AI operations will face a massive labor shortage. |

The biggest risk lies in 'adoption speed': gradual or drastic?

Goldman Sachs's bottom line states that AI is more likely to 'transform' the labor market rather than 'destroy' it. This is like the Internet revolution of the past: the huge improvement in productivity will drive overall economic growth, reduce corporate costs, and create entirely new types of jobs that humans cannot even imagine yet. In the long run, these new dividends will be enough to offset most of the employment impact.

However, the report also points out a potential black swan risk — the speed of corporate adoption. Goldman Sachs warns that this transformation process will undoubtedly be painful for millions of workers, provided that the adjustment must be a gradual process 'lasting years rather than overnight.' If the speed at which companies adopt AI to replace humans far exceeds expectations, causing new job opportunities to not be created in time, the unemployment rate could still face a sharp rise in the short term.