On July 6, 2026, data from the CME “FedWatch” tool showed that the probability of the Fed holding interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting was 77%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike was 23%.

This distribution of probabilities means that the market has basically ruled out a rate hike in July from the baseline scenario. Meanwhile, after personally attending the European Central Bank’s Sintra annual conference, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Global Economist reiterated the baseline forecast that the Fed will not raise rates for the entirety of 2026.

In 2026, when interest-rate expectations have experienced violent swings, the crypto market is facing a core question: when rate hikes are no longer an imminent threat, how will Bitcoin’s macro narrative be rewritten?

77% vs. 23%: How CME FedWatch data interprets the market’s pricing for the July FOMC

The CME FedWatch tool uses 30-day federal funds futures prices to infer the probability distribution of market expectations for the interest-rate outcome of the FOMC meeting. As of July 6, the tool indicated a 77% probability of holding rates unchanged in July and a 23% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.

This probability distribution represents a significant change compared with a week earlier—on July 3, the probability of holding rates unchanged was 82.4%, and the probability of a rate hike was only 17.6%. The marginal fluctuations in probabilities reflect the market’s continued digestion of the latest economic data.

What is even more worth focusing on is the probability matrix for September: the probability of holding rates unchanged is 41%.