Wintermute says this Bitcoin rally is a relief bounce, not a new bull market. They gave several reasons: the lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and Waller's dovish speech drove a rebound in global risk assets, with the crypto market merely following suit. Although whales are accumulating, the options market is bullish, and on-chain data is improving, the spot ETF has seen cumulative net outflows of approximately $2.73 billion this year, with no sustained improvement in capital flows. Ethereum is even weaker. While the institutional narrative persists, the foundation's layoffs and ETF outflows indicate that underlying pressure remains.

The market always tends to interpret every rally as a reversal, but a true bull market requires structural support from capital flows. Current on-chain data shows a zero-sum game, with whale accumulation coexisting with ETF outflows. This divergence suggests the foundation of the rally is not solid. As a leading market maker, Wintermute's assessment deserves attention—they see the real situation at the liquidity level, not just price表象.

For traders, the sustainability of this rally depends on whether capital flows can truly reverse. If ETF net outflows continue and whale accumulation is only short-term behavior, the rally may quickly encounter resistance. The risk of blindly chasing highs is that once macro sentiment turns weak, a rally lacking capital support can easily retrace rapidly. Staying patient and monitoring ETF flows and on-chain position changes is more meaningful than guessing the top.

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