Has risk in the Strait of Hormuz been reignited? A Qatari LNG tanker was hit by a missile attack, and international oil prices rose slightly.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated again. A transport ship loaded with Qatari liquefied natural gas was attacked and caught fire while exiting this critical global energy chokepoint, intensifying market concerns that supply disruptions could last longer than expected, driving both Brent crude oil and European natural gas prices higher.

According to a Bloomberg report, the Al Rekayyat, a liquefied natural gas carrier owned by Qatar's national shipping company Nakilat, was struck early Tuesday morning about 8 nautical miles east of Lima, Oman. EOS Risk Group issued an alert stating that the attack may have been carried out by an Iranian suicide drone or missile, causing the ship to catch fire but resulting in no casualties. This marks the first attack on a Qatari LNG carrier since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict at the end of February.

Meanwhile, according to Xinhua News Agency, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired at least two missiles at several commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Two merchant ships were hit and severely damaged, with no casualties.

In response to the above news, Brent crude oil prices rose more than 1% to $72.76 per barrel, approaching the $73 mark; European natural gas prices surged up to 6% in a single day, the largest increase in a month. At the same time, gold prices fell for a second consecutive day, dropping as much as 1.2% to below $4,120 per ounce, as a repricing of inflationary pressures led to a divergence in safe-haven logic.

Route Anomaly Raises Concerns

The Al Rekayyat had previously docked fully loaded at Qatar's Ras Laffan export terminal.

Bloomberg ship tracking data shows that the vessel turned off its transponder while sailing near the Strait of Hormuz, indicating it was not following an Iran-approved shipping lane.

After the attack, another LNG carrier loaded with Qatari gas, the Al Areesh, suddenly turned around and began circling before entering the strait. Meanwhile, other tankers—including oil tankers and LPG carriers—continued to pass through the disputed waterway, using both Iran-approved and US-managed routes.

According to Kpler analyst Xu Muyu, the continued use of different lanes by various vessels indicates that the strait remains open for traffic, but overall passage has become fragmented as ship owners adopt different routing strategies based on their own risk assessments.

Recovery May Be Slower Than Expected

UBS analyst Justinus Steinhost pointed out that the energy sector performed the best among all sectors on Tuesday, and the attack on the LNG carrier has once again sparked market worries about prolonged supply disruptions. Progress in returning traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to normal levels appears to have stalled slightly, and is still far below pre-conflict levels.

UBS analyst Aditi Samajeepati noted that in the short term, oil prices may remain under pressure as crude oil from tankers previously stranded in the Strait of Hormuz gradually enters the market. However, UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Officer believes that current oil prices overestimate the speed at which the waterway's traffic can return to normal—restoring shipping confidence and bringing tankers back to the Persian Gulf to load export crude will take time, and the recovery of shut-in oil wells may also be slower than expected.

At a broader macroeconomic level, France has lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 0.9% to 0.7%, citing the Middle East conflict as a drag on output growth.

US-Iran Talks Face New Uncertainty

The timing of this attack is sensitive. US-Iran talks are currently suspended during Tehran's funeral for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Qatar has indicated that talks will resume after the funeral.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Tuesday that negotiations for a final agreement will not begin if threats persist, referring to a memorandum of understanding with the United States. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will travel to Iraq to attend funeral processions scheduled for Wednesday in Najaf and Karbala.

Meanwhile, President Trump is scheduled to travel to Ankara later Tuesday for a NATO summit, where the Iran conflict is expected to be a core topic of discussion among leaders. Analysts point out that this attack is testing the agreement reached between the US and Iran at the end of June, aimed at preventing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Market Landscape Quietly Shifts

On the trade front, the sustained instability in the Strait of Hormuz has prompted some market participants to position themselves in advance. Two supertankers carrying Saudi crude have set sail for the United States for the first time since February, following the reopening of the strait.

Indian state-owned refiners are in talks with traders selling Iranian crude and are preparing to purchase oil if the US extends the waiver period beyond August or relaxes related restrictions.

On the Russian side, the average price of Urals crude at Western ports in early July has fallen to $41.66 per barrel, back to pre-Iran-war levels and less than half the peak of oil market turmoil in April.

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