#预测世界杯阿根廷VS埃及

Bitcoin 2026.07.07
I. Current Market Situation (Spot BTC)

As of the evening of the 7th, BTC is oscillating widely between $63,000 and $64,500, with a 24-hour range of $61,300 to $64,700. It rose and then fell during the day, with a fluctuation range exceeding 2,300 points.

1. Short-term Momentum: The 4-hour MACD red bars continue to shrink, the rebound momentum of bulls is weakening, and the one-hour level indicator has turned down, indicating a short-term need for a pullback and repair;
2. Key Price Levels (Core for the Day)
- Strong Support: $63,000–$63,300; Lifeline watershed at $62,500. If it breaks below effectively, the current rebound structure weakens, and the next target is $62,000;
- Strong Resistance: $64,500–$65,000 (Dense trapped area + upper Bollinger Band). A volume-driven consolidation is needed to open upward space; otherwise, a high-level pullback is highly likely;
- Medium-term Heavy Resistance: $65,500, the long-term daily resistance level.
3. Fund Sentiment: Spot ETF outflows have slowed but not continuously increased; institutional long-short divergence is clear, retail long positions are relatively high, contract long-short competition is intense, and short-term long-short tug-of-war is the main theme.

II. Today's Core Bullish and Bearish Driving News

Bearish Suppression (Short-term Selling Pressure)

1. MSTR (MicroStrategy) sold 3,588 BTC for shareholder dividends, breaking the market narrative of long-term holding without selling, bringing short-term spot selling pressure and suppressing bullish confidence;
2. The resilience of US service sector data exceeded expectations, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has not fully materialized, US Treasury yields remain high, the US dollar strengthened slightly, suppressing cryptocurrency risk asset valuations;
3. The Fed's policy has entered a "data black box" mode, with no advance policy guidance, the market dares not take one-sided bets, and wait-and-see sentiment rises.

Bullish Support (Underpinning Price)

1. June non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations, the market's bets on the Fed raising interest rates within the year have decreased, the expectation of tightening liquidity has marginally eased, supporting this oversold rebound;
2. Large institutions' long-term positions are stable: Strategy has continuously increased its BTC holdings throughout the year, with cumulative holdings exceeding 840k BTC, and the long-term accumulation logic remains intact;
3. Bitcoin's mining hash rate remains at historical highs, the network fundamentals are healthy, the decline is not due to a fundamental collapse but rather a liquidity-driven adjustment.

III. Short-term and Medium-term Market Judgment

Short-term (1–3 trading days, mainly range-bound)

Today's core approach: Range grinding, difficult to see unilateral large rises or falls.
Two scenarios:

1. Relatively Weak: Price under pressure below $64,500, bullish momentum exhausted, gradually stepping back to the $63,000 support; if it breaks below $62,500, the pullback deepens to around $62,000;
2. Relatively Strong: Holding the $63,000 support, continuously consolidating and accumulating strength in the $63,000–$64,800 range, waiting for heavy data to catalyze a breakout.

Medium-term (Mid-to-late July, direction depends on inflation data)

The current rebound is only an oversold repair, not a reversal of the large cycle trend. The daily line remains under pressure from medium and long-term moving averages, and the bear market adjustment cycle has not yet ended.
The US CPI inflation data on July 14 is the medium-term watershed:

- Sharp drop in inflation: Increased expectations of rate cuts, BTC may challenge the $65,500 resistance, opening a medium-term rebound;
- Persistently high inflation: The Fed maintains high interest rates, this rebound ends, and prices fall back to the range below $60k for adjustment.

IV. Institutional Long-term Perspective Reference

1. Bernstein: The decline in this bear market is relatively milder than historical ones, but the adjustment time is insufficient, and the bottom is not yet confirmed; maintaining an optimistic long-term cycle logic, year-end target price $150k (relatively aggressive);
2. Standard Chartered: The range around $60k is seen as a window for long-term phased allocation, without changing the year-end target of $100k;
3. Consensus: The height of this market cycle is entirely tied to the Fed's dollar liquidity; without sustained easing expectations, it is difficult to start a new major bull market.

V. Practical Operational Objective Reminders

1. Contracts: Daily volatility is extremely high, with a normal range of 2,000 points up and down. High leverage easily triggers two-way liquidations, making it unsuitable for frequent short-term trading;
2. Spot Short-term: Range-bound high selling and low buying approach. Do not chase longs above $64,500; buying on pullbacks to the $62,500–$63,000 range offers higher cost-effectiveness;
3. Spot Long-term: Below $60k is a relatively low area of the cycle, suitable for phased DCA, not for one-time full positions;
4. Core Risk Points: New US regulatory rules, hawkish Fed statements, and a sharp correction in US stocks can simultaneously trigger a rapid BTC sell-off.