Goldman Sachs covers SpaceX for the first time: a behemoth that vertically integrates to open up three trillion-dollar markets.

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of SpaceX with a "Buy" rating, characterizing it as an infrastructure giant that spans the three major tracks of aerospace launch, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence through vertical integration, with a target price of $205, potential upside of about 27%, and a risk-reward ratio of 2:1.

According to ZhuiFeng Trading Desk, a team led by Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan noted in a report released on July 7 that SpaceX has evolved from a pure aerospace manufacturer into an "infrastructure as a service" platform, with its three major business segments—Space, Connectivity, and AI—each addressing a combined potential market size of up to $28.5 trillion.

Goldman Sachs expects that the company's total revenue will grow from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $474.3 billion in 2030, a five-year compound annual growth rate of 91%, with GAAP operating margins improving significantly from negative 13.9% in 2025 to 50.1% by then.

The direct impact of this report on the market is that it provides a systematic valuation framework for SpaceX and clarifies three core investment debates—addressable market size, revenue growth trajectory, and margin expansion path. Goldman Sachs also warns that the company is expected to need to raise approximately $270 billion in debt capital between 2026 and 2030, with free cash flow remaining negative until 2030, and stock price volatility risk cannot be ignored.

From Rocket Manufacturer to Infrastructure Platform

SpaceX's core competitiveness lies in vertical integration. Through organic investments and the business merger with xAI (completed in February 2026 for approximately $250 billion), the company has upgraded its positioning from an aerospace manufacturer to an infrastructure service provider covering the entire supply chain.

In the aerospace segment, SpaceX eliminates third-party profit stacking, compressing the cost per kilogram to orbit to levels that competitors find difficult to match. Since its first flight in 2010, Falcon 9 has completed 658 missions with a success rate of over 99%, reducing launch costs by more than 85% compared to the industry average. Goldman Sachs expects that with the full commercialization of Starship, the cost per kilogram launched will further drop to $183 by 2030, a discount rate of 99.1% compared to SpaceX's own long-term target.

In the connectivity segment, Starlink satellite internet service has become the core source of the company's mid-term cash flow. Goldman Sachs believes that the capital generated from this segment will provide financial support for deeper space exploration and AI business expansion.

In the AI segment, through the acquisition of xAI (including the Grok model and the X platform) and the ongoing acquisition of Anysphere (i.e., "Cursor"), SpaceX has built a complete chain from computing infrastructure to cutting-edge AI models. Goldman Sachs notes that the company's rapid expansion of ground computing power at costs far below the industry average has surprised analysts, which is also due to vertical integration and internal self-build strategies.

Aerospace: Launch Sovereignty and Cost Moat

Goldman Sachs characterizes SpaceX's position in the aerospace launch field as "dominant." Since 2023, SpaceX has handled over 80% of the world's orbital mass transport missions. In the external commercial launch market, the company has maintained a launch share of over 50% since 2015.

Starship is the core variable in this segment. This fully reusable two-stage launch vehicle has a low Earth orbit payload capacity of over 100 metric tons, more than four times that of Falcon 9. As of the report's release, Starship has completed 12 test launches, and Goldman Sachs expects it to achieve commercialization in the coming quarters.

Goldman Sachs predicts that SpaceX's total number of launches will grow from 165 in 2025 to 2,808 in 2030, with the vast majority being internal payload launches serving internal business (Starlink and orbital computing deployment). For external commercial launches, Goldman Sachs assumes about 50 Falcon 9 external launches per year between 2027 and 2030, with a gradual introduction of Starship external launches.

Aerospace segment revenue is expected to grow from $4.1 billion in 2025 to $8.3 billion in 2030, a five-year compound annual growth rate of 15%. GAAP operating margins are expected to improve from negative 16.1% in 2025 to 15.8% in 2027, but due to high depreciation during the Starship infrastructure construction period, they will fall back to 7.3% in 2030.

On the regulatory front, Goldman Sachs points out that SpaceX currently has an approved annual Starship launch cap of 145 times (distributed across Starbase, Kennedy Space Center, and Cape Canaveral), but all launches are currently concentrated at Starbase, with an actual annual cap of only 25 times. Goldman Sachs expects the company's launch volume to exceed 25 times in 2027, at which point it will need to complete new launch pad construction or initiate a new round of FAA approval processes.

Connectivity: Starlink's Scale and Monetization

The connectivity segment is currently SpaceX's most mature commercial business and the main source of mid-term profit in Goldman Sachs' forecasts. Goldman Sachs expects this segment's revenue to grow from $11.4 billion in 2025 to $246.9 billion in 2031, a five-year compound annual growth rate of about 69%.

In terms of broadband business (Starlink Broadband), Goldman Sachs expects Starlink's paid users to grow from 8.9 million at the end of 2025 to 130.3 million by the end of 2031, a five-year compound annual growth rate of about 50%, with the global broadband market share rising from 0.7% to 8.5% by then. The growth drivers come from two dimensions: first, continued penetration in developed markets (the US, Canada, Western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand), with an expected market share of 14.7% in 2031; second, rapid expansion in emerging markets, with an expected market share of 6.7% in 2031.

At the same time, Goldman Sachs expects Starlink's average monthly ARPU for broadband to decline at a rate of about 10% per year, from $60.37 in 2026 to $38.42 in 2031, mainly due to the geographic shift toward lower-monetization regions and SpaceX's proactive price reductions to optimize user scale.

In terms of mobile business (Starlink Mobile), Goldman Sachs expects the number of connected devices to grow from 7 million in 2025 to 239.7 million in 2031, a five-year compound annual growth rate of about 76%. Starting in 2028, SpaceX plans to launch direct-to-consumer (DTC) mobile services, at which point ARPU will be significantly higher than the existing direct-to-device (DTD) model. Goldman Sachs also notes that SpaceX signed an agreement with EchoStar in 2025 to acquire its 65MHz US spectrum and global mobile satellite service spectrum licenses for approximately $19.6 billion (mix of cash and stock), with the transaction expected to close in November 2027, laying the spectrum foundation for the mobile DTC business.

The GAAP operating margin for the connectivity segment is expected to steadily improve from 38.8% in 2025 to 54.1% in 2031, benefiting from fixed cost leverage and unit cost reductions from the expansion of the satellite constellation scale.

AI: From Ground Computing to Orbital Data Centers

The AI segment is the most elastic and uncertain part of Goldman Sachs' valuation framework. Goldman Sachs expects this segment's revenue to grow from $15.6 billion in 2026 to $589.2 billion in 2031, a five-year compound annual growth rate of about 107%.

Computing scale is the core driving variable. SpaceX currently operates two data center clusters: COLOSSUS I (about 0.21GW, containing approximately 100k NVIDIA H100 GPUs) and COLOSSUS II (about 0.43GW, containing approximately 110k GB200 and GB300 GPUs). Goldman Sachs expects total computing power to grow from about 2GW at the end of 2026 to about 36GW by the end of 2030, with orbital (satellite) computing power starting to be introduced in 2029, reaching 8.5GW then and expanding further to 26GW in 2030.

Monetization path wise, Goldman Sachs categorizes SpaceX's computing power monetization into three types: Inference (baseline of about $2 billion/GW), Hosting (baseline of about $1 billion/GW), and internal Training (no direct monetization currently). Goldman Sachs expects the comprehensive monetization rate of SpaceX's computing power to remain in the range of about $1 to $1.5 billion per GW between 2027 and 2030. Notably, SpaceX has recently signed hosting agreements with Alphabet, Anthropic, and Reflection AI at prices far above market levels (about $2.5 to $3 billion per GW or more), reflecting the scarcity premium under the current global supply-demand imbalance in computing power.

Terafab is another important variable in the AI segment. This AI chip vertical integration project, a collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla, aims to independently design, manufacture, and deploy AI chips to reduce dependence on third-party suppliers (especially NVIDIA GPUs). Goldman Sachs assumes that SpaceX will invest a cumulative total of about $120 billion in capital expenditure on Terafab over the next five years, with the majority concentrated between 2027 and 2029.

Advertising business wise, Goldman Sachs expects advertising revenue from the X and Grok platforms to grow from $2.6 billion in 2026 to $36.3 billion in 2031, a five-year compound annual growth rate of about 70%, with the global (excluding China) digital advertising market share rising from about 0.4% in 2026 to about 2.3% in 2030.

The GAAP operating margin for the AI segment is expected to jump from negative 1.8% in 2027 to 43.7% in 2028, reaching 62.4% in 2031, with an average annual improvement of about 1,700 basis points.

Sum of the Parts, Discounted to Present

Goldman Sachs uses a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, applying multiples to the 2029 forecast data for each of SpaceX's three business segments, then discounting them to the present at a 12% discount rate.

Specifically: The aerospace segment applies a 15.0x EV/Sales (corresponding to 2029 forecast sales of $7.9 billion, enterprise value of $118.1 billion); the connectivity segment applies a 24.0x EV/EBIT (corresponding to 2029 forecast GAAP EBIT of $39.4 billion, enterprise value of $946.4 billion); the AI segment applies a 28.0x EV/EBIT (corresponding to 2029 forecast GAAP EBIT of $81.4 billion, enterprise value of $2.278 trillion). The combined 2029 enterprise value is approximately $3.343 trillion, discounted to a target price of $205.

In scenario analysis, the downside scenario target price is $95 (a decline of about 41% from the current price), and the upside scenario target price is $295 (an increase of about 82% from the current price).

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