Market Structure Assessment

1. Trend Confirmation: A standard bearish structure has formed with lower highs and broken lows: 4200 → 4170 (lower highs), 4150 → 4115 (broken lows). The rebound has officially ended, entering a phase of weak adjustment.
2. Key Turning Point: 4150 was the last support of this rebound. After it was broken, the rebound came to an end, and the market will mainly see bearish adjustment going forward.
3. Current Status: July 7 overall shows weak adjustment, with limited amplitude but a bearish bias overall, and the rebound lacks strength.

Trading Strategy Suggestions

1. Bearish Approach (Major Direction)

- The larger cycle is bearish-dominated. Only short from above 4170. Before 4170 is broken, all rebounds are opportunities to short.
- Only if 4170 is effectively broken can a new rebound begin; otherwise, maintain the shorting approach.

2. Key Operations

- Short Entry: When price rebounds to the 4160-4170 range and meets resistance (e.g., shooting star, engulfing pattern), enter a small short position, with stop loss above 4175.
- Take Profit Targets: First target 4125, second target 4115, and after breaking, look at 4080-4050.
- Long Approach: Only consider a small long position if price firmly holds above 4170, targeting 4200; otherwise, do not go long.

Risk Warning

1. 4170 is the most critical watershed at present. If effectively broken, the bearish approach must be adjusted immediately.
2. If 4115 is lost, gold will further decline to 4080-4050, and short positions can be held.
3. All views are personal analysis and do not constitute trading advice. Trading requires strict stop-loss and position management.
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