Gold at 4140 dollars$XAU , do you dare to buy the dip?

First, take a look at the market: gold has fallen from the January high of 5602 to 4140 now, a drop of 26%.
Sounds scary? But this is exactly gold’s “normal move” — during the 2020 pandemic, it fell from 1700 to 1450, down 15%, and then? It rose to 2000.
Gold does not avoid falling; it just always comes back after the drop.
The logic of crypto assets is the exact opposite: if it rises, it is a revolution; if it falls, it is a scam.
First thing: weak nonfarm payrolls, and gold’s “lifeline” has arrived
Last Friday, the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls data was released — expected 110,000, actual 57,000, with the previous figure also revised down sharply.
Gold’s “nemesis” is the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. When nonfarm data weakens, both have to back down, and gold naturally rises.
As soon as the data came out, gold rebounded directly from 4080 to 4160, gaining 2% in two days.
Second thing: why can’t it keep rising? Because someone is suppressing the price
Clearly the nonfarm data was a major bullish catalyst, so why did gold only bounce 2% and then stop? Two reasons:
First, the dollar is too strong.
DXY is still hovering around 100.9, and U.S. Treasury yields are actually rebounding because of inflation concerns. As a non-yielding asset, gold looks like “money with no interest” in the face of yields.
Second, geopolitical tensions are cooling.
The temporary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has been implemented, the Strait of Hormuz is open, and oil prices have pulled back. Part of gold’s “safe-haven premium” has been drained.
On one side, it is being pulled up by expectations of rate cuts; on the other side, it is being dragged down by a stronger dollar.
Third thing: technicals tell you where the key levels are
On the daily chart, gold has already broken below its long-term rising trendline — a signal of a bearish structure.
But in the short to medium term, it has formed a horizontal consolidation channel on the 4-hour chart:
Support below: 4110-4120 strong support zone
Resistance above: 4140-4160 short-term resistance, and above that the 4200 psychological level
Tomorrow’s FOMC minutes will be the moment that decides the winner.
Before the minutes:
Use light positions or stay on the sidelines. Don’t go heavy in this area betting on direction; volatility will be huge.
Within the 4115-4160 range, buy low and sell high, with a stop loss of 10-15 dollars each side, and use small positions to get a feel for it.
After the minutes:
Dovish (weak employment + hints of rate cuts):
Buy the dip at 4110-4125, stop loss at 4100, target 4200-4250, medium-term looking at 4300+
Hawkish (sticky inflation + continued tightening):
Short if it breaks below 4110, stop loss at 4140, target 4050-4000
#GUSDYieldRisesto3.8%