Bitcoin rose 8.4% in July, but Wintermute says it's just a relief rally, not the start of a bull run.

Weak US demand is the core contradiction. After the non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, risk assets rebounded collectively, but Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of $2.73 billion this year, with eight consecutive weeks of outflows setting a record. The funds haven't returned; it's just short covering and whale accumulation propping up the price.

On-chain data is also diverging: open interest is declining, spot trading volume is shrinking, and exchange deposits are surging—this usually means holders want to sell, not that new money wants to buy. Wintermute's judgment is straightforward: stay cautious until capital flows show sustained improvement.

Rising Japanese government bond yields are also adding pressure. Higher US Treasury yields will drain liquidity from risk assets, and Bitcoin's macro rebound faces a headwind from interest rates.

The sharper the rebound, the more fragile the structure. Prices driven up by short squeezes, once buying dries up, can fall just as fast as they rose.

$btc #defi #rwa #etf #on-chain data