Why did the market suddenly rebound?

The answer may not just be expectations of a rate cut.
The latest U.S. non-farm payroll data came in significantly below expectations, and the market has begun to further bet that the Fed will not continue raising interest rates this year.
At the same time, Walsh's speech did not send a more hawkish signal, which also gave risk assets a collective sigh of relief.
This time, the fastest mover is still the crypto market.
The gains of BTC and ETH have significantly outperformed the major U.S. stock indices.
But the logic behind their rallies is different.
Bitcoin relies on capital flows.
Whales have accumulated over 270k BTC near the 200-week moving average $BTC
Options funds are also shifting from hedging to bullish, spot ETFs have ended consecutive outflows, and market sentiment has been repaired.
Ethereum relies on narrative.
Concepts such as institutional tokenization and Institutional Ethereum continue to gain traction, drawing more institutional attention to ETH.
However, ETH's fundamentals remain under pressure.
The foundation's layoffs, budget cuts, and the previous continuous outflows from ETFs all indicate that capital has not fully returned.
Therefore, this rally is more like an emotional repair.
The easing of macro headwinds, the cooling of geopolitical risks, and low summer liquidity have collectively amplified the rebound's strength.
But what truly determines whether the market can turn into a bull run is the influx of new capital.
Currently, Bitcoin spot ETFs still have a net outflow of approximately $2.7 billion year-to-date.
As long as $ETF capital does not continuously return to form a trend, it is more appropriate to define this as a relief rally rather than the start of a new bull market.
The market is warming up.
But caution is still more important than optimism.