Over the past week, the market has been like a giant beast just surfacing from deep water, testing its breath.

BTC briefly surged through the $64,000 mark, and ETH also rose above the $1,800 threshold. Across the entire network, there were liquidations totaling more than $500 million. But no one can say for sure whether this is enough to breathe steadily.

There are two things worth noting:

First, Citi lowered its target price. The reason is that the narrative of ETF capital inflows is falling apart.

Second, Strategy broke its “never sell” pledge and cashed out $216 million.

By rights, this should be a double negative for the market. Yet it only dipped a bit, and then quickly recovered.

This makes me feel that the panic back in early June, when it fell below $58,000, may really be building a bottom.

When institutions retreat and retail investors are afraid, the price did not collapse—rather, it held its ground.

This is a more honest language than any news.

The massive liquidation in the derivatives market is the most brutal trace of the long-versus-short game—and also the cost the market must pay when searching for a new equilibrium.

Now, BTC and ETH are caught between two forces:

On one side is macro uncertainty—oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and the erosion of institutional confidence.

On the other side is technical support, and perhaps the bottom consensus that is starting to form.

Where will we go next?

Maybe the direction of ETF capital flows, and the stance of the Federal Reserve, will have more say than any faith.$BTC $ETH
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