Today's BTC

BTC current price: around $61,300

Direction bias: bearish consolidation (60%)

Short-term support: 60,800

Strong support: 59,800

First resistance: 62,000

Second resistance: 63,200

Today's core: Is this decline the final shakeout, or is the trend starting to weaken?

When I was watching the market tonight, the first thing I looked at was not how much BTC had dropped.

I directly checked who was selling.

After I got the answer, I wasn't that surprised.

The biggest news today was not the Fed or ETFs, but Strategy disclosing the sale of 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million. This directly suppressed market sentiment, and BTC briefly dropped to around $61,300.

But what really made me think was not this news.

But the market's reaction to this news.

If this had happened two months ago, such a piece of news would likely have caused BTC to break through several key supports in a single day.

But today, after the price fell to around 61,000, buying funds began to emerge.

This shows that while the market is still weak, it is no longer in the stage of 'panic selling on any negative news.'

However, this does not mean I am becoming optimistic.

There is a detail in today's order book that I've been watching for a long time.

Every time BTC rebounds to around 62,000, it encounters significant selling pressure.

This indicates that short-term funds are now more willing to take profits on rallies rather than chasing buys.

In other words, the bulls can absorb, but they do not yet have the capability to actively launch an offensive.

The mistake many people are most likely to make today is thinking:

'Since 61,000 hasn't been broken, it's safe.'

I instead believe that a support level being repeatedly tested is itself a form of attrition.

Support does not get stronger with more tests; it gets thinner.

Therefore, until 62,000 is reclaimed, I will not define today as stabilizing.

Another detail worth noting.

Although the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $266 million today, the overall trend over the past week remains a net outflow for the eighth consecutive week. The capital side has only shown signs of repair, far from a complete reversal.

So for tonight's US and European session, I have a scenario in mind.

If BTC can reclaim $62,000 with volume breakout, I believe today's decline is more of a sentiment release on news, and the next step has a chance to challenge $63,200 again.

But if the US and European session breaks below $60,800 again with significantly increased volume, then I will think the market has not completed this round of clearance, and the next real support to watch is around $59,800.

My trading plan for today.

I will not blindly bottom-fish around 61,000.

Similarly, I will not chase shorts at this level.

I will wait for the market to either reclaim 62,000 or actually break below 60,800 before deciding on my position.

Sometimes, the biggest advantage in trading is not being one step ahead of others.

But making one less mistake than others.

A saying from the trading room:

What truly determines a market move is never a piece of bearish news, but whether the market can continue to fall after that bearish news.
$BTC ‌
#Strategy上周减持3588枚BTC