Garret Jin's 14.9 million short position is pressing in! $ZEC How long can 454 hold?

Brothers, ZEC is seesawing around the 450 mark, both bulls and bears are holding their breath.
News:
Whale short adds positions: The agent of the "1011 insider whale," Garret Jin, increased his ZEC short position to 32,759 coins, worth $14.9 million, with an average short entry price of $444. This person has profited from both previous ZEC trades — shorting at $626 in May for a profit of $11.24 million, and going long at $439 in June for a profit of $420k. His historical win rate is not low.
Ironwood upgrade countdown: Zcash is expected to activate the Ironwood upgrade on the mainnet around July 21, fixing the Orchard vulnerability from May and introducing a new privacy pool and Turnstile supply verification mechanism. The upgrade expectation is the core driver for ZEC's rise from $385 to $475 in this round.
Technical analysis:
The current price is oscillating near the BOLL middle band at 451, with MACD approaching zero axis.
Upper resistance: 457-460, break through and look at 475-480.
Lower support: 445-451, if broken, look at 440, strong support at 425.
Gongming's opinion:
Garret Jin is floating a loss of $530k but hasn't cut his losses, indicating confidence in his direction. The Ironwood upgrade is a medium-term positive, but with two weeks until July 21, there may be repeated shakeouts in the short term. Technically, the price is oscillating around 450, with an unclear direction.
Trading strategy:
Aggressive: Enter a short position with light size near current price 454;
Conservative: Short on a breakdown below 445.
Whales and big players are gambling against each other; we small retail traders won't take sides. Wait for the direction to be confirmed before following.
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