Recently, all the news about SpaceX has been good. Almost all investment banks have come out with buy ratings. Morgan Stanley is calling for $300, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and RBC are also buys. Today, it officially entered the Nasdaq 100 index. Just looking at this setup, you’d think you could blindly go long on this stock.

But after doing this for so many years, the more I see this kind of “everyone is bullish” scene, the more I first ask: what is the real reason the money is flooding in?

SpaceX’s recent upward move isn’t because it suddenly became profitable; it’s being forced by passive money. Entering the Nasdaq 100 means all funds that track this index must allocate to it. Just this one factor is estimated to bring over $4 billion in passive buying, regardless of whether it’s expensive or not—funds have to buy. On top of that, the investment banks that underwrote the IPO are promoting their own newly issued stock; it’s their duty to talk it up. More critically, this time it only released 3% to 4% of the float. With such a small float, even a little passive buying can push the price up. In short, the current price is driven by liquidity, not by earnings.

Coming back to the company itself, I really can’t figure out profitability. It’s losing over $4 billion per quarter and burning cash like crazy. For the next several years, it will have to rely on continuous fundraising to plug the cash flow gaps. If you expect this business to turn a profit in the short term, it’s basically unrealistic. The valuation is also ridiculously high—a market cap of over $2 trillion, and some institutional models calculate its fair value at less than half that. Does this stock have long-term imagination? Yes. Is its current profitability clear? No.

And what you really need to watch out for is what comes next. Right now, the float is tight because most of the shares are still locked up—this is exactly why it’s easy to push up. When the lock-up expires, a large batch of shares will be dumped, and with a significant amount of short interest already piled up, the higher it’s pushed now, the harder it could fall. The same thin float that lifts you up can bury you down.

So my view is: in the short term, you can make money from this index inclusion on the passive buying wave—go long, capture the sentiment and capital flow. But keep in mind, you’re making money on liquidity, not on the company improving. Don’t mistake forced buying for a fundamental turnaround. For the long term, I’d rather wait for the lock-up to expire, for this wave of hype to fade, and for the price to fall back to a level I feel comfortable with—say, not far from its IPO price of $135—before entering, holding, and waiting for it to actually deliver real earnings.

This week, the market is being forced to stuff money into this stock. That’s a separate matter from whether this company is worth the price. #SK海力士ADR获超额认购 $SPCX