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‍# World Cup Prediction: Argentina vs. Egypt
Can Egypt Pull Off an Upset and Hold Argentina to a Draw in Regular Time? — Little Fortune God’s World Cup Betting Diary 🔥

In tomorrow’s Round of 16 knockout match, Argentina vs. Egypt, bookmakers predict Argentina has a 69.1% chance of winning within 90 minutes, while Egypt’s upset probability is only 12.3%. Almost the entire world believes that Argentina, who won all their group stage matches, will crush Egypt with their attack. However, Egypt’s head coach stated before the match, “We will assign three players to mark Messi.” Facing a strong opponent, they will undoubtedly set up a defensive bus to hold firm, while Salah will look for opportunities to strike back on the counter. So what are the possible ways Egypt could cause an upset? Let’s take a look:

Possibility 1: Argentina’s legs are no longer their own.

This is Egypt’s biggest advantage, bar none.

Argentina’s 3:2 match against Cape Verde went the full 120 minutes. After the game, Messi admitted, “I’m tired.” Legend Aguero was even more blunt on ESPN: “Only four days of rest, then switching cities, many players had cramps, and now they have to face Egypt, a physically strong team.”

Worse still, the storm in Miami forced Argentina to cancel an outdoor training session, leaving them stuck in the hotel gym for recovery. Scaloni has only two full training sessions to prepare for this knockout match.

What about Egypt? They also played 120 minutes plus penalties against Australia — but remember, they won that penalty shootout. The fatigue of a winner and the fatigue of a loser are two completely different things. The entire Egyptian team’s mindset now is, “We even won the penalty shootout, what else is there to fear?”

When Argentina’s legs start to weaken around the 60th minute, Egypt’s charge will just be beginning.

Possibility 2: Cape Verde has already handed over the “Argentina User Manual.”

Egypt’s technical director, Gho­neim, said something after the match that should send chills down every Argentine fan’s spine:

“Cape Verde’s performance gave us tremendous confidence.”

That’s right. Cape Verde’s 3:2 match, trailing twice and equalizing twice, with 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha nearly becoming a legend — this game served as a free tactical lesson for all African teams: Argentina’s high press is not impenetrable; their defense exposes large gaps when hit by quick counterattacks.

Egypt has thoroughly studied this “manual.” Assistant coach Ibrahim Hassan even declared before the match: “Argentina has Messi, but we have Salah and 26 Messis.” It sounds arrogant, but they have genuinely done their homework.

Possibility 3: Triple-team Messi — they’ve already used this tactic.

Remember Egypt’s 1:1 group stage draw against Belgium?

Against De Bruyne, Egypt deployed a triple-team, successfully locking down the world-class midfielder. Gho­neim explained clearly: “No matter whether De Bruyne wanted to go right or left, we had three players surrounding him.”

Against Messi? It will be even tougher.

Argentina’s true threat has never been just Messi — but when Messi is marked by three players, who will step up: Alvarez, Lautaro, or Almada? Scaloni still hasn’t finalized his forward partnership, and Alvarez has an ankle injury.

Once Messi is locked in a cage, Argentina’s attack becomes like a tiger without teeth.

Possibility 4: Salah + Marmoush — this “African duo” is no worse than Messi.

Don’t just focus on Salah. Look at Egypt’s lineup:

Marmoush, No. 22, valued at €50 million, has already shown terrifying instincts and speed in this World Cup.

Salah, No. 10, valued at €22 million, at 34 years old remains the most dangerous striker in all of Africa.

Zizo, No. 25, valued at €35 million, midfield engine with passing accuracy comparable to top European midfielders.

Trezeguet, No. 7, valued at €4.5 million, a fast winger specializing in through balls.

The total value of this lineup exceeds €130 million, with at least four attacking threats. And Argentina just exposed a fatal flaw in their match against Cape Verde: their defense lacks speed when tracking back against quick counterattacks.

Marmoush’s speed is exactly the nightmare for Argentina’s defense.

Possibility 5: Penalty shootout — Egypt just won one, Argentina just feared one.

A harsh fact: Egypt just eliminated Australia 4:2 in a penalty shootout, and the entire team’s penalty-taking mentality is at its peak. Argentina, on the other hand, just went through 120 minutes of hard-fought battle to beat Cape Verde 3:2, and penalty shootouts are a nightmare memory for them.

If it’s a draw after 90 minutes, then extra time, and then penalties — that’s Egypt’s absolute home ground.

Goalkeeper Shennawy may not be world-class, but he just saved two penalties in the shootout. A goalkeeper who just became a hero in a penalty shootout, versus a defensive line that just cramped up in extra time — who would you choose?

Possibility 6: French referee + psychological pressure = Argentina’s “hidden bomb.”

The referee for this match is Frenchman Letexier.

Argentine fans have already “collectively lost their minds” on social media. The reason is simple: France is one of the favorites to win this World Cup, and can a French referee be fair officiating Argentina’s match? Especially after the controversy involving Prestianni, tensions between Argentina and UEFA are already strained.

The psychological pressure gap is even more stark:

Argentina: Defending champions, no one has defended a World Cup since Brazil in 1962, Messi’s last tournament, the weight of the nation’s expectations — losing would not be an upset; it would be a disaster.

Egypt: For the first time in their 92-year history, they have reached the knockout stage, and winning a knockout match would be their peak — every step forward from here is a bonus.

When you carry the burden of “must win,” every pass carries a moment of hesitation. When you have nothing to fear, every breakthrough carries an extra ounce of courage.

In 2022, Saudi Arabia managed to reverse Argentina 2:1, relying on this “barefoot, no-fear” mentality. Egypt right now is that Saudi Arabia.