## I. BTC Bitcoin Market Analysis

### Current Market Situation

Overall, the day has been trending higher but then pulling back, with bullish and bearish forces in a tight standoff that has converged into a consolidating pattern. After yesterday’s surge and the attempt to break through the 63,000 level met with pressure, today continues with a slight pullback. At present, BTC has stabilized in a narrow range of 61,500-62,500. The prior oversold rebound that lasted for 4 trading days—an advance of more than 8%—has paused. This rebound is a repair move within a daily downtrend channel, rather than a reversal of the trend.

The news backdrop is clearly weighing on the market. MSTR, a US-listed company, broke the long-standing rule of only buying and never selling. Today it sold 3,588 Bitcoins (worth approximately $216 million) to settle dividend payments, which suppresses bullish momentum in the short term. On the positive side, spot ETFs have ended their persistent outflow trend, and expectations for interest rate cuts have warmed up, providing bottom support for prices and limiting the room for a deeper decline.

### Key Price Levels

• **Strong support:** 60,000-60,500 (the dividing line between bulls and bears; if it breaks down, the rebound structure will fail)

• **Weak support:** 61,000 (intraday short-term support)

• **Strong resistance:** 62,800-63,000 (the high of this round of rebound; only an effective breakout can open up upside space)

### Short-term Outlook

Today is mainly expected to be range-bound consolidation and to digest the pressured positions; overall, the market bias remains slightly bullish. In the short term, there is no one-directional upside or downside momentum. Resistance overhead is heavy, so it is likely to repeatedly test the 61,000 support.

• **Holding above 61,000:** Continue range-bound consolidation, build up momentum, and attempt to challenge the 62,800 resistance level

• **A valid breakdown below 60,000:** The rebound phase ends, returning to a downward correction trend; look for strong support at 58,000-57,500

## II. ETH Ethereum Market Analysis

### Current Market Situation

ETH is performing better than BTC. Last week it gained more than 10% in total, leading the market. Today it also pulls back slightly in line with the broader market. This is a normal technical correction, and the overall bullish structure remains intact.

Fundamental advantages are highlighted. From the second half of 2026 onward, ongoing empowerment of ETH continues through asset tokenization, Layer 2 scaling, and the real-world assets (RWA) ecosystem moving forward and being implemented. The network effects of the ecosystem keep expanding. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is steadily rising, and ETH’s medium- to long-term resilience is far better than BTC’s. In the short term, it is dragged down by broader market consolidation, so gains have narrowed, with no obvious “dumping” momentum.

### Key Price Levels

• **Strong support:** 1820-1850 (the core defensive level for short-term bulls)

• **Weak support:** 1880 (intraday consolidation support)

• **Strong resistance:** 1980-2000 (former highs; a breakout will start a new round of upward movement)

### Short-term Outlook

Today is expected to pull back, stabilize, and then remain relatively strong in consolidation, with noticeably stronger downside resistance than Bitcoin.

• **Hold 1850 support:** Prioritize rebound catch-up to make up gains, and target the 1980 resistance zone

• **Unexpected breakdown below 1820:** Short-term enters a period of sideways adjustment; the consolidation range shifts down to 1780-1900, waiting for new momentum catalysts

### Overall Summary and Trading Ideas

1. The overall market is in the late stage of rebound correction, with a window for directional selection. Macro sentiment is cautious, and the main players focus on wash trading and position building; there is currently no one-sided trend.

2. In the short term, prioritize building positions with ETH on dips (low entries). Use support levels to compete and capture rebound catch-up. For BTC, mainly sell high and buy low within the range, and do not chase highs.

3. Pay special attention to the ADP data this evening. It will directly affect expectations for a Fed rate cut and will determine the subsequent breakout direction for the crypto market. $ETH $BTC