Mars Finance News, July 7 – The global market focus is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Fed Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and may even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to accommodate government fiscal deficits. This means that in the future, markets will rely more on real-time economic data rather than the interest rate path pre-provided by the central bank, reducing policy predictability. It also implies that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may once again concentrate around major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks are heating up again. The Strait of Hormuz has again seen merchant ships struck by missiles, and the brief window of de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran is at risk of collapsing. Trump also reiterated that if negotiations fail, he does not rule out expanding military action. However, Saudi Arabia lowered the official selling price of crude oil for August on the Asian market, reflecting a relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still caught between "geopolitical risks" and "loose supply," and whether oil prices can regain strength in the short term depends on whether the conflict further affects actual supply. On the other hand, the topic of Japan's debt pressure and the yen's continued weakness is heating up again. Market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not diminished, and the trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar-denominated assets has not seen a significant change. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the fact that the market is losing the "certainty" provided by the central bank's forward guidance. When policy begins to fully rely on data, geopolitical risks rise simultaneously, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market in the short term will still be driven primarily by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum. Price rhythms will continue to be disrupted by macro events and shifting market sentiment. Until capital forms a true consensus direction, the market is expected to maintain a cautious stance.

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Bitunix analyst: The Fed downplays policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main front, rather than the interest rate path.

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