Bitunix analyst: The Federal Reserve downplays policy guidance, and the "uncertainty premium" becomes the main battlefront, rather than the interest rate path.

BlockBeats news, July 7—The global market’s focus is gradually shifting from the interest-rate direction to policy communication. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that forward guidance should not be treated as a fixed framework and, if necessary, could even be completely scrapped. He also reiterated that the central bank will not deliberately keep interest rates low to accommodate government budget deficits. This means that in the future, markets will rely more on real-time economic data rather than an interest-rate path pre-set by central banks. Policy predictability will decline, and it also implies that asset prices’ sensitivity to inflation, employment, and economic data will continue to rise. Market volatility may once again concentrate around the release of major data.

Meanwhile, risks in the Middle East are heating up again. Reports have emerged of a missile attack on a merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The brief window of easing that the U.S. and Iran had formed earlier is facing a break. Trump also reiterated that if negotiations fail, the expansion of military action is not out of the question. However, Saudi Arabia cut the official crude oil selling price for August to Asian markets, reflecting that supply remains relatively ample. At present, the energy market is still caught in a tug-of-war between “geopolitical risks” and “supply staying loose.” Whether oil prices can strengthen again in the short term still depends on whether the conflict further affects actual supply.

On another front, discussions about Japan’s debt pressure and the yen’s continued weakening are gaining momentum again. Market doubts about the Bank of Japan’s policy room have not disappeared, and the broader trend of global capital flowing into high-yield U.S. dollar assets has not shown any clear change.

For the crypto market, what is truly worth watching is not a single event, but the fact that the market is losing the “certainty” provided by central banks’ forward guidance. When policy starts to return to being fully data-dependent, geopolitical risks rise in parallel, and global liquidity remains somewhat tight, in the short term the crypto market will still be driven mainly by shifts in risk appetite and liquidity momentum. Price pacing will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macro events and market sentiment. Until capital forms a genuine consensus on direction, a relatively cautious pattern is expected to persist.