SPCX is officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index tonight, but on-chain data does not support a one-sided bullish view.

On Hyperliquid, retail positions are net long, while the short/long ratio for large positions over $100k is as high as 2.06. Whales have placed approximately $4.45 million in sell orders in the $156–$175 range. The short/long ratio for medium and small positions is 1.25, making it the only net bullish tier — retail investors are taking the other side, while large capital is distributing.

The weighted average cost for large long positions is $164.59, and for large short positions it is $169.68, both above the current price of $156.2. This means whales are not in a hurry to close their positions; instead, they are waiting for better prices.

Passive capital inflows are certain, but the circulating supply structure has been priced in on-chain in advance — whales have already set their sell orders, and retail investors chasing longs are more like taking the exit.

The risk is: if passive buying after index inclusion is insufficient to absorb the selling pressure above, SPCX may consolidate at highs or even decline. And the positions of retail investors chasing highs will become the counterparty for whales exiting their liquidity.

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