Ceasefire agreement? Iran’s missiles teach you what “a piece of scrap paper” really means

At the end of June, the US and Iran had just signed a memorandum of understanding, and Trump said, “Basically settled.”

Then on July 7—

Iranian missiles directly hit commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

One oil tanker, one Qatar LNG ship. The port-side engine room was struck, burst into flames on the spot, and thick smoke filled the sky.

After one ship in the Gulf of Oman was hit by an “unknown projectile,” it caught fire. Another LNG vessel’s crew shouted over the radio: “The engine room is on fire, dense smoke everywhere—we can’t assess the damage.”

Both ships were severely damaged, but luckily no one died.

“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has officially resumed military attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.”

A ceasefire agreement? There is none.

Oil prices jumped straight up by 1%.

Wait—didn’t Saudi Arabia just cut oil prices by $11? Didn’t OPEC+ just agree to increase production in August?

That’s right. On the supply side, they’re flooding the market. Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia by $11 per barrel, the biggest drop in 26 years.

But one Iranian missile cancelled all of that out.

The Strait of Hormuz sees 20 million barrels of oil transit every day—20% of global supply. One sentence from Iran can halt tankers, let alone directly throw missiles at ships.

What is “pricing power”? This is what “pricing power” is.

But what really chills me isn’t oil prices.

It’s Bitcoin.

On July 6, BTC had just surged to $64,400.

On July 7, the missiles landed, and BTC immediately crashed back to $61,900.

Oil prices rise → inflation expectations heat up → the Fed doesn’t cut rates → risk assets get drained.

This transmission chain is more solid than any K-line you’ve ever seen in the crypto world.

Asian tech stocks already dropped first—Nikkei down 1.4%, Taiwan stocks down 1.8%. The crypto market is the next domino.

Are the Pakistan negotiations on July 11 still happening?

My assessment: discussing it is pointless.

The reason is simple—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps doesn’t want to negotiate at all.

While they put on an act at the negotiating table, they’re fighting for real in the Strait of Hormuz. The moment the missiles were launched, it told the world:

The agreement is what we use to buy time—the strait is ours.

Trump said, “Either reach an agreement, or get the job done.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps replied: “Our missiles and drones are ready to open fire on you.”

Both sides are playing with maximum pressure.

The validity period of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement isn’t even as lasting as the gains of the altcoins in your hand.

Saudi Arabia’s $11 price cut couldn’t hold down oil prices, but one Iranian missile is enough—that’s the brutal reality of geopolitics.#GT二季度销毁257万枚 #Vitalik公布精简以太坊路线图 #gStocks代币化股票上线 $BTC $BZ $CL