End of adjustment or continuation of trend: BTC, HYPE technical structure review | Invited analysis

This week's report focuses on a multi-cycle technical structure analysis of two major targets: BTC and HYPE. The Bitcoin section covers daily and 4-hour cycles, reviewing the adjustment structure since the May 6 high, and combines a self-built quantitative model to provide predictions for key resistance levels, support levels, and medium- to short-term trading paths for this week. The HYPE section focuses on the 4-hour level trend, analyzing the structural evolution of this round's rebound, and offers corresponding risk control suggestions for short-term trading this week. The details are as follows.

Review of Last Week's Strategy

• BTC Trend Prediction Validation: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin's short-term adjustment was nearing its end. The actual market movement was largely consistent with the predicted trend, validating the forward-looking analysis.
• HYPE Trend Prediction Validation: Last week's article indicated that HYPE was about to present a short-term long entry opportunity. So far, the market trend has confirmed this judgment.

I. Bitcoin Multi-Cycle Trend Structure Analysis

1. Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis

Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart

Figure 1

① As shown in Figure 1: Since the high of $82,850 on May 6, the adjustment trend on the daily chart has presented a clear four-segment adjustment structure from "Endpoint 0" to "Endpoint 4".

② The market is currently in the (3-4) rebound segment. The location of "Endpoint 4" will determine the short-term price trend.

• Path 1: If the rebound price of "Endpoint 4" breaks above the resistance level of $65,700, then when the price subsequently meets resistance and pulls back, the probability of directly breaking through the support level of $57,820 (the July 1 low) will significantly decrease. In this scenario, after the adjustment ends, the market is expected to rebound again, and the overall near-term trend tends to enter a range-bound consolidation. The longer this consolidation structure persists, the more it helps to slow down bearish momentum and accumulate strength for a subsequent bullish counterattack.
• Path 2: If the rebound price of "Endpoint 4" fails to reach $65,700, or is even lower than $64,500, then when the price meets resistance and pulls back, the probability of directly breaking below $57,820 will greatly increase, and the market is more likely to continue its downward trend.

③ Based on the analysis from the self-built quantitative model, the probability of the market entering range-bound consolidation (i.e., Path 1) is significant.

2. In-depth Analysis of Hourly Level Trend Structure (Using 4-Hour as the Analysis Cycle)

Bitcoin 4-Hour K-Line Chart

Figure 2

① Last week's review noted: "If the end of Endpoint 44 is below $58,110 and accompanied by a bullish divergence in momentum, the market will see a rebound opportunity." The market trend last week validated this judgment, with actual movements highly consistent with the predicted structure.

② On the 4-hour chart, the hourly-level downward wave that began from the high of $67,300 on June 15 has completed a full five-wave structure; simultaneously, at the end of the adjustment, the two lows of "Endpoint 44" and "Endpoint 42" have formed a clear bullish divergence in momentum, providing technical support for the subsequent oversold rebound.

③ The market is currently in the (44-45) rebound segment. From Figure 2, the current rebound high at "Endpoint 45" has broken above the lower rail of the previous "Declining Center F" (approximately $62,300), and the short-term trend is developing favorably for the bulls. If it can further break above "Endpoint 41" (approximately $65,700), it would signify an upgrade in rebound strength, significantly reducing the probability of a direct breakdown below "Endpoint 44" (approximately $57,820) when the subsequent rebound meets resistance.

II. Bitcoin This Week's Trend Prediction and Trading Strategy (07.06～07.12)

1. BTC Trend Prediction for This Week

Core View: Focus on the location of the daily-level oversold rebound high that started from the low of $57,820.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $64,500～$65,700 area (previous key high/low levels) • Second Resistance Zone: Around $67,300 (previous key resistance area) • Third Resistance Zone: $69,500～$71,000 area (previous key resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: $60,950～$62,300 area (previous key support level)
• Second Support Level: Around $57,820 (previous key support level)
• Third Support Level: Around $55,000 (previous key support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy

① Medium-term Strategy:

** Bitcoin Daily K-Line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)**

Figure 3

As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming that the market structure has shifted to a bear-dominated pattern.

• Current medium-term short position should be maintained at around 20%.
• If the price rebounds to the $65,700～$67,300 area and shows signs of stagnation, combined with a top signal from the self-built quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.

② Short-term Strategy

Use 30% of the position with a stop loss set, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute as the operation cycle).

③ Short-term Operation Plan

To dynamically respond to complex market changes, two specific operation plans (A and B) are prepared in advance:

• Plan A: Tentative Shorting in Strong Resistance Zone
• Entry: If the price rebounds to the $65,700～$67,300 area and meets resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position of about 30%.
• Risk Management: Set initial stop loss.
• Exit: When the price adjusts to near a key support level and combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close positions for profit.
• Plan B: Light Longing in Strong Support Zone
• Entry: If the price breaks above the $65,700 area but then falters and pulls back, and shows signs of stabilization near the strong support around $57,820, combined with a bottom signal from the quantitative model, establish a long position of about 15%.
• Risk Management: Set initial stop loss.
• Exit: When the price rebounds to near a key resistance level and combined with model signals, gradually close positions for profit.

III. HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-Hour K-Line Chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in Figure 4, last week's review noted: "If 'Endpoint 56' is higher than 'Endpoint 54,' it forms a 'double bottom' pattern, and this round of adjustment may end, with a high probability of a rebound starting from 'Endpoint 56.'" So far, the market movement has been highly consistent with the analysis. In the actual trend last week, HYPE price rose from "Endpoint 56" (approximately $60.55) to "Endpoint 59" (approximately $72.06), with a maximum gain of about 19.01%.
2. On the 4-hour chart, the rebound of HYPE from the low of $58.5 on June 25 (Endpoint 54) can be subdivided into a seven-wave upward structure on the 4-hour cycle: 54-55, 55-56, 56-57, 57-58, 58-59, 59-60, 60-61.
3. The price is currently running the 60-61 upward segment, and the overall upward structure is complete. However, from the self-built "Spread Trading Model," top warning signals have been triggered at "Endpoint 59" and "Endpoint 61," and the price is approaching the historical high zone around $76.94. Therefore, it is not advisable to blindly chase the rally at this time; be cautious of short-term pullback risks.

IV. HYPE This Week's Trend Prediction and Short-term Trading Strategy

1. HYPE Trend Prediction for This Week

Key Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level: Around $75～$76.94
• Second Resistance Level: Around $80

Key Support Levels

• First Support Level: Around $68
• Second Support Level: Around $65.5
• Third Support Level: $60.5～$61.5 area

Core View for This Week: Observe the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears in the $75～$76.94 area when the price rises there.

2. HYPE Short-term Trading Strategy for This Week

This week, focus on closing positions to lock in profits and hedge risks. If you have already placed long orders in the support zone according to the plan, it is recommended to move the stop loss up to around $68 to protect profits (or decide on your own). If the market adjusts, close positions promptly to take profits.

V. HYPE Short-term Trading Review

We strictly followed the operation plan, based on the trading signals from our independently built "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," completing one short-term (long) operation last week, with a total trading profit of approximately 10.23%.

Short-term Trade 1: (See Table 1)

① HYPE Short-term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage *1 times)

Table 1

② Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

• Entry Strategy:

a. Based on accurate judgment of the overall upward trend of the price.

b. When the price effectively broke above the short-term downward trendline, and the "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model" simultaneously issued a bottom divergence resonance signal.

Therefore, we established a 30% long position at $64.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price rose to the $72 resistance area and showed stagnation, forming a "top divergence" pattern on the K-line;

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong top warning signal (green dot + white dot), forming a top resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we closed the entire position near $70.55.

• Summary: This trade achieved a profit of approximately 10.23%.

HYPE_60 Minute K-Line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-term Trade Illustration)

VI. Special Notes

1. Immediately set an initial stop loss when opening a position.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move stop loss to entry cost (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move stop loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit, move the stop loss by 1% synchronously to dynamically protect and lock in gains.

Financial markets change rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustments. All viewpoints, analysis models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are solely for personal trading logs. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market carries risks; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based on this content.