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One ounce of gold = 60 barrels of crude. $GC $CL
That's the 99.4th percentile since 1946. In 80 years of data, this ratio has been more extreme exactly once: April 2020, the week oil traded negative.
We all remember what happened next.
Today? #OPEC is hiking output, Hormuz is reopening, @jpmorgan is calling for $30 oil. #Gold is down 26% from $5,589 — yet not a single $5,000 street target has been withdrawn.
Everyone is standing on the same side: cheaper oil, new gold highs.
Meanwhile: Fed Chair Warsh just said "prices are too high" and markets price a 50% chance of a September hike. Crack spreads are at 4-year highs — refiners are fighting for barrels. Central banks, per reported data, turned net sellers of gold in Q1. #Fed #WTI
Only extreme sentiment produces extreme prices.
Long oil, short gold — not because of the extreme itself, but because the three forces that created it are loosening, one by one.
$GLD $USO #macro
(Personal views, not investment advice. I and funds I manage may hold or initiate related positions.)