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Bernstein Maintains Bitcoin Year-End Target Price of $150,000, Current Pullback Weaker Than Historical Cycles

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On July 7, despite Bitcoin's price having fallen approximately 54% from its peak of nearly $125,000 in October 2025, Bernstein maintains its year-end target price of $150,000. Bernstein believes that the current pullback is significantly lower than the typical 75% to 90% declines seen at the end of historical cycles, indicating a change in market structure. In the context of current low market sentiment, a clear target price from Wall Street can provide a price anchor for the market, while historical pullback frameworks help traders assess risk. If this cycle aligns with historical trends, the market may still decline further, but institutional judgments on subsequent recovery remain noteworthy. The firm points out that the previous high of nearly $125,000 in October 2025 remains an important resistance level; if calculated based on a historical 75% pullback, the corresponding price would be about $31,000, which can be seen as a critical failure zone. Future focus will be on the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs and whether spot demand rebounds, as this is an important signal for determining if the market is entering a recovery phase.
BTC0.27%
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