Strategy suddenly sold another 3588 BTC

The first week of July has passed. BTC rebounded rapidly from the low of 57.8k at the end of June to nearly 64k, standing above the 30-day moving average, but today it has retreated below 62k, falling back below the 30-day moving average. The market is repeatedly testing, and it is also repeatedly consuming everyone's patience.

Today is the tenth-year anniversary of the DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) plan. The 72nd note, the 55th addition, executed at $61,957. The average cost after the addition is $61,100, with a return rate of -4%. Compared to -9% a week ago, the loss has narrowed by 5 percentage points. Although it is still underwater, at least the direction is correct.

Just as Jiaolian was recording this note, breaking news came from the market: Strategy sold coins again. And this time, the amount sold is much larger than last time.

1. From 32 to 3,588: After the door opened

On June 2, Jiaolian wrote an article called "Indeed Sold." That day, Strategy announced it had sold 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135, totaling about $2.5 million. 32 coins, relative to Strategy's then-holding of 843,706 coins, is almost negligible. But Jiaolian said at the time: Once the door is opened, subsequent selling is only a matter of degree, not direction.

A month later, the prophecy came true.

On July 6, Strategy posted on X that it had sold a total of 3,588 BTC, receiving about $216 million, to pay dividends on its digital securities. From 32 to 3,588 coins, a difference of 112 times.

Jiaolian found the complete recent transaction records online, revealing what happened over the past month.

On June 1, sold 32 coins. Holdings: 843,706 coins.

Then Strategy did something interesting: it took advantage of BTC being in the 63-67k range and made three consecutive purchases, totaling 3,657 coins at an average price of about $65,100. On June 8, it bought 1,550 coins (at $65,332); on June 15, it bought 1,587 coins ($63,024); on June 22, it bought 520 coins ($67,068).

On June 30 and July 6, it sold a total of 3,588 coins in two batches at an average price of about $60k.

What is the result? Strategy's current holding is 843,775 coins, which is 69 more than the 843,706 coins after selling 32 on June 1.

Selling is selling, buying is buying. Selling is to fulfill the dividend obligations of digital securities, while buying the dip never stops. This is the pragmatic management of a mature public company's balance sheet. Whether you call it swing trading or forced selling, the data shows that Strategy has been accumulating while selling to repay debt, and the net effect is an increase in holdings.

3,588 coins out of 843,775 holdings is still a drop in the bucket, accounting for about 0.4%. And this is the net result after buying and selling in June.

2. Is there any bottom in mind?

From an institutional perspective, selling coins to pay interest is a pragmatic choice. Strategy has obligations to redeem its digital securities, and holding a large amount of non-yielding BTC requires a source of cash. Selling a small portion to maintain the securities system is much more rational than letting the entire financial structure collapse.

But from the market’s perspective, this news is likely to make retail investors feel even more uncertain.

Now? A month later, 3,588 coins. Although still small relative to holdings, the growth rate is significant. In one month, it went from 32 coins to 3,588. The market will start to wonder: What about the next 30 days? Will it become 30k coins? Will Strategy one day begin to systematically reduce holdings?

More subtly, Strategy "bought the dip" at around 65k in June and "sold high" at around 60k in early July. The operation is hard to describe. The selling price is about $5,000 lower than the buying price. This means that to fulfill dividend obligations, it had to bear a book loss of about $5,000 per coin. This is not a good deal. But that is the reality of business operations — you have debts to repay, interest to pay, and you cannot choose the price. Institutions have their weaknesses.

3. The patience of ordinary people is the greatest weapon

Jiaolian sometimes feels that one of the characteristics of this bear market is the constant emergence of situations that shake confidence: institutions selling coins, ETF outflows for eight consecutive weeks, media cooling down, retail investors leaving. One after another, combined, they easily create the illusion that everyone is running away.

But the data does not lie.

Since the beginning of this year, listed companies have net purchased 166,984 BTC[2]. This number is more than twice the mining output of 81,153 during the same period. Miners produce at most a few hundred new coins per day, while institutional demand is in the thousands. Strategy sold 3,588 coins, that is a fact. But looking at the whole market, listed companies are consistently net buying, also a fact.

Looking further ahead: corporate demand, including Strategy, over a longer time horizon, is far from being satisfied.

So what can ordinary people use to compete with these institutions?

In terms of capital, they cannot compare. In terms of information channels, they cannot compare. In terms of market influence, they cannot compare.

But ordinary people have one thing that institutions can never beat: patience.

Institutions face pressure from quarterly reports. They have obligations to redeem digital securities. They are monitored by rating agencies. They are constrained by financing costs. When the market falls, institutions may have to sell at unfavorable prices because their bills are rigid.

What about ordinary people? No quarterly reports, no dividend obligations, no rating agencies staring at your balance sheet. The ordinary person's only liability is themselves, and the only thing they need to face is their own mindset. As long as they don't use leverage or short-term funds, they can accompany the market through the coldest winter.

Just like the ten-year agreement, rain or shine, it will surely reach the other shore. This process will not change because of how many BTC Strategy sells, nor will it collapse because of a 5% drop in BTC one day. Because it relies on the simplest and most scarce thing — time.

Whether with the wind or against it, persist in DCA, and add positions on dips.